Table 5.
Gross margin values in £ for transhumance herds for herds without SGP (baseline), SGP severely affected (severe), SGP slightly affected (slight), SGP severely affected and vaccinated (severe – vaccinated), and SGP slightly affected and vaccinated (slight – vaccinated). Overall herd gross margin (GM) and gross margin per reproductive female (GMRF) are from stochastic simulations.
| Baseline | Severe | Slight | Severe – vaccinated | Slight – vaccinated | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OUTPUTS | ||||||
| Animals and products out | Revenue from sale of healthy reproductive animals | 581.73 | 458.70 | 544.56 | 569.43 | 579.50 |
| Revenue from sale of SGP-affected reproductive animals | 0.00 | 123.03 | 37.17 | 12.30 | 2.23 | |
| Revenue from sale of healthy young animals | 715.89 | 0.00 | 512.61 | 560.15 | 688.04 | |
| Revenue from sale of SGP-affected young animals | 0.00 | 178.11 | 96.90 | 29.14 | 10.66 | |
| Revenue from sale of carcasses (mortality not due to SGP) | 6.83 | 6.66 | 6.82 | 6.83 | 6.83 | |
| Revenue from sale of carcasses (mortality due to SGP) | 0.00 | 2.63 | 0.07 | 0.42 | 0.03 | |
| Herd value change | Herd value change | 0.00 | −587.97 | −74.78 | −14.22 | −3.55 |
| Animals and products in | Replacement females | −0.00 | 221.03 | 9.95 | 4.13 | 0.00 |
| Sum of outputs | 1304.45 | −39.88 | 1113.70 | 1159.53 | 1283.74 | |
| Percentage of outputs – sheep (%) | 64.79 | 61.65 | 65.69 | 65.79 | 64.80 | |
| Percentage of outputs – goats (%) | 35.21 | 38.35 | 34.31 | 34.21 | 35.20 | |
| VARIABLE COSTS | ||||||
| Veterinary and medicines | Medicines | 78.00 | 78.00 | 78.00 | 78.00 | 78.00 |
| Veterinary and Animal Health Workers | 3.59 | 3.59 | 3.59 | 3.59 | 3.59 | |
| SGP treatment | 0.00 | 86.07 | 18.96 | 10.11 | 1.82 | |
| SGP vaccination (subsidised) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.93 | 6.93 | |
| Labour | Labour | 123.50 | 123.50 | 123.50 | 123.50 | 123.50 |
| Marketing | Market travel | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.76 |
| Annual dues paid to market leader/chief | 0.76 | 0.76 | 0.76 | 0.76 | 0.95 | |
| Market fees | 9.65 | 7.96 | 9.47 | 8.92 | 9.62 | |
| Sum of variable costs | 216.45 | 300.84 | 235.23 | 232.76 | 134.83 | |
| Percentage of variable costs – sheep (%) | 62.30 | 55.57 | 60.37 | 60.24 | 61.03 | |
| Percentage of variable costs – goats (%) | 37.70 | 44.43 | 39.63 | 39.76 | 38.97 | |
| GM: Median (90 % CI) | 1032 (560−1708) | −370 (−727 to −111) | 707 (349−1261) | 877 (459–1479) | 992 (533–1649) | |
| GMRF: 50 % subsidies: Median (90 % CI) | 22 (15−29)a | −8 (−15 to −2)a | 15 (9−22)a | 19.08 (15.28–23.85) | 21.23 (17.40–25.58) | |
| GMRF: 0 % subsidies: Median (90 % CI) | 22 (15−29)a | −8 (−15 to −2)a | 15 (9−22)a | 18.42 (11.91–25.74) | 20.97 (14.35–28.21) | |
| GMRF: 100 % subsidies: Median (90 % CI) | 22 (15−29)a | −8 (−15 to −2)a | 15 (9−22)a | 19.14 (12.19–26.16) | 21.29 (18.38–28.49) |
a
For the baseline, severe and slight scenarios modelled, GMRF does not vary with differing subsidy percentages, as animals are unvaccinated, therefore there is no subsidised vaccination costs.