Table 6.
Partial budget values in £ for cost of SGP for sedentary (SE) SGP severely affected (severe) and SGP slightly affected (slight) herds and transhumance (TH) SGP severely affected and vaccinated (severe), and SGP slightly affected (slight) herds. Net value (NV), net value per reproductive female (NVRF) and profit loss are from stochastic simulations.
| SE – severe | SE – slight | TH – severe | TH - slight | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Additional costs | |||||
| SGP treatment | 25.46 | 4.65 | 86.07 | 18.96 | All animals affected with SGP, apart from those offtaken, are treated. |
| Purchase of replacement females | 57.52 | 0.00 | 221.03 | 9.95 | Purchased as farmers try to maintain female reproductive herd size. |
| Revenue foregone | |||||
| Offtake of SGP-affected animals at reduced price | 89.96 | 28.45 | 379.65 | 97.66 | Reduced value of SGP-affected animals means farmers offtake more reproductive animals to gain the same revenue as without SGP, reducing herd value, and make less revenue from young animal offtake. |
| Reduced value of SGP-affected animals remaining in herd | 72.98 | 11.84 | 202.96 | 74.78 | Some SGP-affected reproductive animals remain in the herd, and some reproductive animals are replaced with SGP-affected young homebred stock, which contributes to reduced herd value. |
| Reduced number of replacements (homebred) | 67.27 | 0.00 | 373.13 | 0.00 | Reduced numbers of replacement reproductive animals due to increased SGP mortality and offtake contributes to a reduced herd value. |
| SGP reproductive mortalities | 37.35 | 3.47 | 158.96 | 15.47 | Some SGP-affected animals die, which could have been sold or remained in the herd. |
| Fewer young animals offtaken | 124.61 | 12.27 | 356.21 | 49.63 | Less offtaken as fewer remain after SGP mortality and more kept as replacements. |
| Total costs | 475.15 | 60.24 | 1778.01 | 266.45 | |
| Extra Revenue | |||||
| Additional carcasses sold | 0.41 | 0.01 | 2.45 | 0.06 | Increased mortality due to SGP means there are more carcasses which can be sold. |
| Value of replacement females (purchased) | 57.52 | 0.00 | 221.03 | 9.95 | Purchased replacement females contribute to herd value. |
| Value of additional replacement stock (homebred) | 7.82 | 10.21 | 62.88 | 46.43 | For some sub-populations, need for increased homebred replacements can be met, so there are more than in herds without SGP, contributing to herd value. |
| Additional young offtaken | 0.00 | 0.00 | 61.24 | 0.00 | Applies to transhumance severely affected herds, where offtake of SGP-affected animals as a coping mechanism results in more female sheep being sold. |
| Costs saved | |||||
| Reduced marketing costs | 1.28 | 0.09 | 1.68 | 0.18 | Selling fewer young animals results in reduced marketing costs. |
| Total benefits | 67.03 | 10.31 | 349.29 | 56.62 | |
| NV: Median (90 % CI) | 404 (479−323) | 71 (109−43) | 1409 (2236−838) | 303 (579−147) | |
| NVRF: Median (90 % CI) | 27 (31−22) | 5 (7−3) | 30 (41−21) | 7 (10−3) | |
| GM reduction (%): Median (90 % CI) | 121 (143−101) | 22 (32−13) | 138 (174−109) | 31 (47−16) |