Figure 4.

Assessment of the radius of the protection and surveillance zone for LSDV. The top panel shows the probability of transmission beyond a given distance (if transmission were to occur from an infected establishment) computed using the estimates (blue circles) and the lower and upper 95% confidence limits (error bars) for each of the fat‐tailed kernels (and in the same order as) in Table 6. The thick black line indicates the median probability for all kernels. The black dotted lines indicate threshold probabilities of 0.05 and 0.01. The bottom panel shows the distances at which a threshold probability of transmission beyond that distance is reached calculated using the estimates (circles) and lower and upper 95% confidence limits (error bars) for each kernel. The thick black line indicates the median distance for all kernels. The black dotted lines indicate distances of 20 and 50 km (i.e. the proposed radius of the protection and surveillance zones, respectively)