Table 4.

Summary of the LSD extraction for the ‘period between earliest point of infection and suspicion report’

Reference	Country	Outbreak year	Period between earliest point of infection and suspicion report (days)
EFSA (2017)	Turkey	2014	201
EFSA AHAW Panel (2016)	Greece	2015–2016	112
Animal Health ‐ Regulatory Committee (2016c)	Greece	2016	32–423
Animal Health ‐ Regulatory Committee (2016b) and Miteva et al. (2017)	Bulgaria	2016	12–274
Animal Health ‐ Regulatory Committee (2016a)	North Macedonia	2016	145
EFSA AHAW Panel (2015a)	Greece	NA	7–156
EFSA (2018)	Greece and Bulgaria Albania	NA NA	21–227 15–307
Saegerman et al. (2018)	France	NA	308

¹Median time between an outbreak and the next closest one in distance, assuming that each outbreak could generate the next closest one in distance.

²Mean period (sampled from a gamma distribution with a mean of 10.5 days and shape parameter of 30) based on data from the 2015–2016 outbreaks in Greece.

³Min‐max period based on the estimated age of the skin lesions when the animal was detected at the abattoir. The min‐max incubation periods (4–14 days) (OIE, 2002) were added to the age of the lesions.

⁴Min‐max range based on estimated date of infection considering that the index case had been detected early because of the high level of awareness given the proximity with the Greek outbreaks.

⁵Based on clinical findings.

⁶Min–max range assumption used in a transmission model fed with epidemiological data from Israel outbreaks 2012–2013 developed to simulate LSD spread between farms over space after an incursion in Greece.

⁷Median time to detection during the favourable LSD transmission (April to July), based on a spread model used to simulate LSD incursions assuming no vaccination were implemented. Simulated time courses were compared with the number of herds reporting cases during the first 2 weeks of the epidemic in Montenegro in 2016.

⁸Assumption used for a quantitative import risk analysis, based on expert opinion and experimental data.