Table 4.
Estimated absolute rates of severe COVID-19 outcome in each racial and ethnic group, marginalizing out over potential confounders. Reported as number out of 10,000 (95% confidence interval) people
| Self-report race/ethnicity† | Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | Model 4 | Model 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian American | 4.8 (3.0, 6.6) | 7.0 (4.3, 9.7) | 8.1 (4.8, 11.4) | 7.7 (4.6, 10.9) | 7.7 (4.5, 10.8) |
| Black or African American | 8.5 (5.7, 11.4) | 11.0 (7.4, 14.7) | 10.1 (6.6, 13.7) | 8.3 (5.4, 11.2) | 7.4 (4.8, 10.0) |
| Hispanic or Latino/Latina | 6.6 (5.0, 8.1) | 9.8 (7.5, 12.2) | 9.6 (7.2, 11.9) | 8.6 (6.5, 10.8) | 7.7 (5.7, 9.6) |
| Indigenous American/Alaskan Native | 5.5 (0.1, 11.0) | 5.9 (0.1, 11.6) | 6.0 (0.1, 11.8) | 5.3 (0.1, 10.5) | 5.1 (0.1, 10.1) |
| Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander | 3.8 (0, 9.0) | 7.0 (0, 16.7) | 7.0 (0, 16.7) | 5.8 (0, 13.8) | 5.6 (0, 13.3) |
| White | 4.2 (3.7, 4.6) | 3.6 (3.2, 4.0) | 3.5 (3.1, 4.0) | 3.6 (3.2, 4.0) | 3.7 (3.2, 4.1) |
| Multiracial | 3.7 (0, 11.0) | 5.0 (0, 14.9) | 5.4 (0, 15.9) | 4.0 (0, 11.8) | 3.7 (0, 11.2) |
| Selected race not listed | 4.4 (1.7, 7.1) | 5.6 (2.1, 9.1) | 4.9 (1.5, 8.2) | 4.7 (1.4, 8.0) | 4.6 (1.4, 7.9) |
| Unknown race | 2.1 (1.1, 3.1) | 4.5 (2.3, 6.7) | 5.6 (1.4, 9.9) | 6.3 (1.6, 11.1) | 6.3 (1.6, 11.1) |
Estimated absolute risks calculated over the entire follow-up period: March 1, 2020, through September 30, 2020
†Individuals self-identified as Hispanic or Latino/Latina grouped as such regardless of race selected; all racial groups exclude individuals who identified as Hispanic or Latino/Latina
Model 1: Marginalized such that racial and ethnic groups have same distribution of health system (Kaiser Permanente Colorado, Northwest, or Washington)
Model 2 Marginalized such that racial and ethnic groups have same distribution of variables in Model 1, age (linear spline with knots at 35, 45, 55, 65, 75), and sex (male, female)
Model 3: Marginalized such that racial and ethnic groups have same distribution of variables in Model 2, body mass index (< 25, 25–30, 30 + kg/m2), and smoking (current, past, never)
Model 4: Marginalized such that racial and ethnic groups have same distribution of variables in Model 3, hypertension, asthma, atherosclerotic disease, chronic kidney disease (CKD), severe CKD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), diabetes mellitus (DM), heart failure (HF), modified Charlson score (Charlson score excluding asthma, atherosclerotic disease CKD, COPD, DM, HF; categorical as 0, 1, 2, 3 +), oral steroid use, and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin II receptor blocker use, statin use
Model 5: Marginalized such that racial and ethnic groups have same distribution of variables in Model quartile of neighborhood deprivation index and percent in census block with housing units with more than 1 person per room