Table 4.
Mortality rate comparison across different risk groups on the test and postdevelopment prospective test data sets. Three risk groups were defined as (1) low-to-intermediate–risk group (P≤.13), (2) high risk (.13<P≤.24), and (3) very high risk (P>.24). The threshold probabilities are obtained from receiver operating characteristic analysis, which (1) maximizes the Youden index (P=.13), or (2) defined by clinical utility of dexamethasone (P=.24) from the RECOVERYa trial.
| Risk group | Test data set | Prospective test data set | ||
| Patients, n (%) (n=10,752) |
Deaths, n (%) (n=1327) |
Patients, n (%) (n=14,863) |
Deaths, n (%) (n=1782) |
|
| Low–intermediate | 8065 (75.01) | 315 (3.91) | 11,049 (74.34) | 512 (4.63) |
| High | 1170 (10.88) | 225 (19.23) | 1743 (11.73) | 327 (18.76) |
| Very high | 1517 (14.11) | 787 (51.88) | 2071 (13.93) | 943 (45.53) |
aRECOVERY: Randomised Evaluation of COVID-19 Therapy.