Table 2.

Discrimination and calibration of 10 HBV-HCC models for prediction of HCC risk.

	Total number of patients in complete case analysis	Number of HCC in 3 years	Number of HCC in 5 years	AUC		Hosmer-Lemeshow χ2
				3 years (95% CI)	5 years (95% CI)	3 years (p value)	5 years (p value)
REACH-B	2,496	45	71	0.57 (0.49–0.65)	0.58 (0.52–0.64)	8.68 (0.37)	16.11 (0.04)
PAGE-B	2,922	52	80	0.73 (0.67–0.79)	0.73 (0.67–0.79)	4.15 (0.66)	4.85 (0.56)
mPAGE-B	2,586	47	73	0.73 (0.65–0.81)	0.74 (0.68–0.80)	3.33 (0.85)	6.12 (0.53)
CU-HCC	2,414	43	69	0.79 (0.75–0.83)	0.80 (0.76–0.84)	12.64 (0.08)	17.68 (0.01)
HCC-RESCUE	3,101	53	83	0.79 (0.73–0.85)	0.77 (0.69–0.83)	7.54 (0.48)	7.54 (0.48)
CAMD	3,101	53	83	0.79 (0.73–0.85)	0.77 (0.73–0.81)	4.74 (0.69)	3.88 (0.80)
APA-B*	1,749	44	65	0.87 (0.83–0.91)	0.78 (0.74–0.82)	12.40 (0.03)	14.67 (0.01)
REAL-B*	1,858	46	68	0.84 (0.78–0.90)	0.82 (0.78–0.86)	6.27 (0.39)	12.85 (0.05)
AASL-HCC	2,659	47	74	0.86 (0.82–0.90)	0.86 (0.84–0.88)	13.07 (0.11)	28.03 (<0.01)
RWS-HCC*	1,947	46	70	0.89 (0.85–0.93)	0.88 (0.86–0.90)	11.14 (0.19)	19.45 (0.01)

Of note, AASL-HCC predicted both 3- and 5-year risk; PAGE-B, mPAGE-B, CU-HCC, HCC-RESCUE, CAMD, APA-B predicted 5-year risk; REACH-B and REAL-B models predicted 3-, 5-, and 10-year risk; and RWS-HCC predicted 10-year risk. Area under the curve (AUC) and Hosmer-lemeshow chi-square tests were conducted for each model.

AASL-HCC, age, albumin, sex, liver cirrhosis-HCC; AFP, alpha-fetoprotein; APA-B, age, platelet, AFP; CAMD, cirrhosis, age, male sex, and diabetes mellitus; CU-HCC, Chinese University HCC; HCC, hepatocellular carcinoma; HCC-RESCUE, HCC-Risk Estimating Score in CHB patients Under Entecavir; mPAGE-B, modified PAGE-B; REACH-B, Risk estimation for hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B; REAL-B, Real-World Effectiveness From the Asia Pacific Rim Liver Consortium for HBV Risk Score; RWS-HCC, Real-world risk score for hepatocellular carcinoma.

^*Highlights the models incorporating AFP variable.