Table 4.
Discrimination and calibration of 10 HBV-HCC models for prediction of HCC risk bv race/ethnicity.
| Total number |
Number of HCC in 3 years | Number of HCC in 5 years | AUC |
Hosmer-Lemeshow χ2 |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 years (95% Cl) | 5 years (95% Cl) | 3 years (p value) | 5 years (p value) | ||||
|
| |||||||
| White | |||||||
| REACH-B | 956 | 18 | 29 | 0.57 (0.47–0.67) | 0.53 (0.45–0.61) | 8.17 (0.23) | 11.94 (0.06) |
| PAGE-B | 1,162 | 22 | 33 | 0.71 (0.61–0.81) | 0.72 (0.64–0.80) | 11.56 (0.12) | 9.50 (0.22) |
| mPAGE-B | 1,010 | 20 | 30 | 0.75 (0.65–0.85) | 0.75 (0.67–0.83) | 3.58 (0.73) | 4.00 (0.68) |
| CU-HCC | 914 | 17 | 28 | 0.69 (0.63–0.75) | 0.70 (0.64–0.76) | 17.32 (0.02) | 19.50 (<0.01) |
| HCC-RESCUE | 1,226 | 22 | 35 | 0.75 (0.65–0.85) | 0.74 (0.66–0.82) | 10.02 (0.26) | 11.83 (0.16) |
| CAMD | 1,226 | 22 | 35 | 0.76 (0.66–0.86) | 0.75 (0.67–0.83) | 2.27 (0.89) | 4.35 (0.63) |
| APA-B | 673 | 17 | 23 | 0.82 (0.76–0.88) | 0.83 (0.77–0.89) | 8.23 (0.22) | 6.31 (0.39) |
| REAL-B | 714 | 19 | 25 | 0.83 (0.75–0.91) | 0.82 (0.74–0.90) | 2.69 (0.75) | 5.45 (0.36) |
| AASL-HCC | 1,036 | 20 | 31 | 0.86 (0.80–0.92) | 0.85 (0.81–0.89) | 4.89 (0.77) | 10.57 (0.23) |
| RWS-HCC | 748 | 19 | 27 | 0.87 (0.81–0.93) | 0.85 (0.79–0.91) | 3.68 (0.60) | 7.05 (0.22) |
|
| |||||||
| African American | |||||||
| REACH-B | 942 | 20 | 33 | 0.63 (0.51–0.75) | 0.62 (0.52–0.72) | 8.88 (0.35) | 15.16 (0.06) |
| PAGE-B | 1,078 | 22 | 36 | 0.69 (0.59–0.79) | 0.69 (0.61–0.77) | 3.79 (0.71) | 5.14 (0.53) |
| mPAGE-B | 994 | 21 | 34 | 0.68 (0.56–0.80) | 0.69 (0.59–0.79) | 8.35 (0.40) | 9.42 (0.31) |
| CU-HCC | 955 | 20 | 33 | 0.83 (0.79–0.87) | 0.84 (0.80–0.88) | 1.45 (0.98) | 2.52 (0.93) |
| HCC-RESCUE | 1,124 | 23 | 37 | 0.79 (0.71–0.87) | 0.75 (0.67–0.83) | 5.19 (0.74) | 8.19 (0.42) |
| CAMD | 1,124 | 23 | 37 | 0.79 (0.71–0.88) | 0.75 (0.67–0.83) | 5.60 (0.69) | 6.84 (0.55) |
| APA-B* | 678 | 19 | 32 | 0.87 (0.79–0.95) | 0.83 (0.75–0.91) | 3.33 (0.65) | 6.57 (0.25) |
| REAL-B* | 733 | 19 | 33 | 0.85 (0.77–0.92) | 0.81 (0.73–0.89) | 4.24 (0.52) | 6.84 (0.23) |
| AASL-HCC | 1,024 | 21 | 34 | 0.85 (0.79–0.91) | 0.85 (0.81–0.89) | 13.86 (0.05) | 21.81 (<0.01) |
| RWS-HCC* | 759 | 19 | 33 | 0.91 (0.85–0.97) | 0.89 (0.85–0.93) | 6.57 (0.58) | 11.97 (0.15) |
Area under the curve (AUC) and Hosmer-lemeshow chi-square tests were conducted for each model. AASL-HCC, age, albumin, sex, liver cirrhosis-HCC; AFP, alpha-fetoprotein; APA-B, age, platelet, AFP; CAMD, cirrhosis, age, male sex, and diabetes mellitus; CU-HCC, Chinese University HCC; HCC, hepatocellular carcinoma; HCC-RESCUE, HCC-Risk Estimating Score in CHB patients Under Entecavir; mPAGE-B, modified PAGE-B; REACH-B, Risk estimation for hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B; REAL-B, Real- World Effectiveness From the Asia Pacific Rim Liver Consortium for HBV Risk Score; RWS-HCC, Real-world risk score for hepatocellular carcinoma.
Highlights the models incorporating AFP variable.