Table 2.
Growth rate and reproduction numbers from exponential model fit
| Growth rate | R | Probability R>1 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All positive | 0·005 (−0·010 to 0·021) | 1·03 (0·94 to 1·14) | 0·75 | |
| Subset | ||||
| Positive for both E and N genes | 0·009 (−0·007 to 0·024) | 1·06 (0·96 to 1·16) | 0·87 | |
| Positive for both E and N genes or positive only for N gene with Ct 35 or less | 0·007 (−0·008 to 0·023) | 1·05 (0·95 to 1·15) | 0·83 | |
| Shipment | ||||
| Sent via post | 0·009 (−0·011 to 0·030) | 1·06 (0·93 to 1·20) | 0·81 | |
| Sent via courier | –0·003 (−0·026 to 0·020) | 0·98 (0·84 to 1·13) | 0·40 | |
| Age, years | ||||
| 5–11 | 0·059 (0·027 to 0·091) | 1·42 (1·18 to 1·68) | >0·99 | |
| 12–17 | –0·007 (−0·040 to 0·024) | 0·95 (0·76 to 1·16) | 0·32 | |
| 18–54 | –0·031 (−0·057 to −0·005) | 0·81 (0·68 to 0·97) | 0·01 | |
| ≥55 | –0·006 (−0·042 to 0·030) | 0·96 (0·75 to 1·20) | 0·37 | |
| 25–54 (no children in household) | –0·039 (−0·091 to 0·013) | 0·77 (0·51 to 1·08) | 0·07 | |
| 25–54 (children in household) | –0·014 (−0·045 to 0·019) | 0·91 (0·74 to 1·12) | 0·20 | |
| 25–54 (household size 1–2) | –0·025 (−0·080 to 0·032) | 0·85 (0·56 to 1·21) | 0·19 | |
| 25–54 (household size ≥3) | –0·018 (−0·050 to 0·013) | 0·89 (0·71 to 1·08) | 0·13 | |
| Region | ||||
| East Midlands | 0·052 (0·007 to 0·097) | 1·36 (1·05 to 1·73) | 0·99 | |
| West Midlands | –0·016 (−0·059 to 0·028) | 0·90 (0·66 to 1·18) | 0·24 | |
| East of England | 0·024 (−0·023 to 0·071) | 1·16 (0·86 to 1·51) | 0·84 | |
| London | 0·080 (0·035 to 0·126) | 1·59 (1·23 to 1·99) | >0·99 | |
| North West | 0·009 (−0·031 to 0·049) | 1·06 (0·81 to 1·34) | 0·67 | |
| North East | –0·057 (−0·130 to 0·014) | 0·67 (0·36 to 1·09) | 0·06 | |
| South East | –0·041 (−0·087 to 0·004) | 0·76 (0·53 to 1·02) | 0·04 | |
| South West | 0·003 (−0·054 to 0·060) | 1·02 (0·69 to 1·42) | 0·55 | |
| Yorkshire and The Humber | –0·020 (−0·061 to 0·020) | 0·87 (0·65 to 1·13) | 0·16 | |
Data are posterior median values and 95% credible intervals. The posterior probability that R is greater than 1 is also reported. Results are presented for the full population of REACT-1 round 14, for different definitions of swab positivity, different methods of sample shipment, and for models stratified by age or region.