Table 2.
Summarised effect measures for 90-day all-cause mortality. Adjusted posterior event probabilities, relative risks (RRs), and risk differences (RDs) for 90-day all-cause mortality in the primary analysis using weakly informative priors. CrI, credibility interval; SOFA, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment; PaO2:FiO2, ratio of partial pressure of arterial oxygen to fraction of inspired oxygen ratio; n, number of patients in each group (after excluding patients with missing data for one or more variables included in the analyses). RR <1 and RD <0 favour the lower target; RR >1 and RD >0 favour the higher target. ∗The SOFA score ranges from 0 to 24, with sub-score from 0 to 4 for six organ systems (respiration, coagulation, liver, cardiovascular, CNS, and renal), with higher aggregated scores indicating higher degrees of organ failure. †PaO2:FiO2 ratio: lower scores indicate more severe pulmonary dysfunction.
| Group | n | Event probability, lower target (%) | Event probability, higher target (%) | RR | RD (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All patients | 2888 | 43.0 (95% CrI: 38.3–47.8) | 42.3 (95% CrI: 37.7–47.1) | 1.02 (95% CrI: 0.93–1.11) | 0.6 (95% CrI: –3.0 to 4.3) |
| SOFA score (baseline)∗ | 2799 | ||||
| 0–4 | 486 | 32.5 (95% CrI: 26.5–39.1) | 31.7 (95% CrI: 25.8–38.3) | 1.03 (95% CrI: 0.85–1.23) | 0.8 (95% CrI: –5.3 to 6.5) |
| 5–6 | 501 | 35.5 (95% CrI: 29.3–42.1) | 35.7 (95% CrI: 29.5–42.6) | 1.00 (95% CrI: 0.81–1.16) | 0.0 (95% CrI: –7.2 to 5.3) |
| 7–7 | 352 | 37.6 (95% CrI: 30.5–45.7) | 33.6 (95% CrI: 26.3–41.0) | 1.10 (95% CrI: 0.94–1.48) | 3.4 (95% CrI: –2.3 to 13.6) |
| 8–10 | 881 | 42.1 (95% CrI: 36.3–48.0) | 41.4 (95% CrI: 35.8–47.3) | 1.02 (95% CrI: 0.89–1.15) | 0.7 (95% CrI: –4.7 to 5.9) |
| 11–19 | 579 | 57.2 (95% CrI: 50.7–63.5) | 55.8 (95% CrI: 49.4–62.1) | 1.02 (95% CrI: 0.92–1.15) | 1.4 (95% CrI: –4.6 to 7.7) |
| Lactate concentration (baseline, mM) | 2869 | ||||
| 0.2–0.9 | 501 | 23.1 (95% CrI: 17.5–29.2) | 25.4 (95% CrI: 19.9–32.0) | 0.92 (95% CrI: 0.66–1.14) | –1.9 (95% CrI: –10.0 to 3.1) |
| 1.0–1.4 | 631 | 38.1 (95% CrI: 32.1–44.6) | 38.0 (95% CrI: 32.0–44.6) | 1.00 (95% CrI: 0.85–1.16) | 0.2 (95% CrI: –6.3 to 5.8) |
| 1.5–2.1 | 577 | 42.0 (95% CrI: 35.5–49.2) | 38.7 (95% CrI: 32.2–45.3) | 1.08 (95% CrI: 0.93–1.32) | 3.1 (95% CrI: –2.7 to 11.1) |
| 2.2–3.6 | 576 | 45.0 (95% CrI: 38.8–51.7) | 42.5 (95% CrI: 36.0–49.1) | 1.06 (95% CrI: 0.92–1.25) | 2.3 (95% CrI: –3.5 to 9.6) |
| 3.7–24.0 | 584 | 61.7 (95% CrI: 55.0–67.9) | 60.8 (95% CrI: 54.2–67.0) | 1.01 (95% CrI: 0.91–1.13) | 0.9 (95% CrI: –5.5 to 7.1) |
| Norepinephrine dose (baseline, μg kg−1 min−1) | 2888 | ||||
| 0.00–0.00 | 1373 | 38.1 (95% CrI: 33.0–43.5) | 38.6 (95% CrI: 33.4–44.0) | 0.99 (95% CrI: 0.87–1.11) | –0.4 (95% CrI: –5.3 to 4.0) |
| 0.01–0.10 | 366 | 39.8 (95% CrI: 32.5–47.3) | 40.1 (95% CrI: 33.2–47.3) | 1.00 (95% CrI: 0.82–1.17) | –0.1 (95% CrI: –7.8 to 6.3) |
| 0.11–0.21 | 372 | 39.5 (95% CrI: 32.4–47.0) | 39.5 (95% CrI: 32.6–46.4) | 1.01 (95% CrI: 0.83–1.19) | 0.2 (95% CrI: –7.3 to 6.9) |
| 0.22–0.39 | 348 | 50.0 (95% CrI: 42.4–57.6) | 47.8 (95% CrI: 40.4–55.5) | 1.04 (95% CrI: 0.91–1.24) | 1.8 (95% CrI: –4.9 to 10.4) |
| 0.40–2.40 | 429 | 52.4 (95% CrI: 45.3–60.2) | 48.0 (95% CrI: 40.9–55.2) | 1.08 (95% CrI: 0.95–1.33) | 3.9 (95% CrI: –2.5 to 14.0) |
| PaO2:FiO2 ratio (baseline, kPa)† | 2876 | ||||
| 4.5–11.0 | 565 | 46.0 (95% CrI: 39.8–52.4) | 45.3 (95% CrI: 39.6–51.5) | 1.02 (95% CrI: 0.90–1.14) | 0.7 (95% CrI: –4.8 to 5.8) |
| 11.0–14.1 | 584 | 46.6 (95% CrI: 40.4–53.3) | 45.1 (95% CrI: 39.5–51.1) | 1.03 (95% CrI: 0.92–1.17) | 1.4 (95% CrI: –3.6 to 7.4) |
| 14.1–17.4 | 574 | 46.6 (95% CrI: 40.5–53.1) | 45.2 (95% CrI: 39.5–51.3) | 1.03 (95% CrI: 0.92–1.16) | 1.3 (95% CrI: –3.7 to 7.0) |
| 17.4–22.2 | 577 | 41.6 (95% CrI: 34.8–48.3) | 42.4 (95% CrI: 36.1–48.4) | 0.99 (95% CrI: 0.84–1.11) | –0.5 (95% CrI: –7.2 to 4.5) |
| 22.2–157.6 | 576 | 44.0 (95% CrI: 37.7–50.4) | 43.0 (95% CrI: 36.9–48.8) | 1.02 (95% CrI: 0.91–1.16) | 1.0 (95% CrI: –4.2 to 6.5) |