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. 2022 Jan 25;13:482. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-28157-3

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© The Author(s) 2022

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 1 — a Posterior distribution of relative excess deaths (%) in males in England. b Posterior distribution of relative excess deaths (%) in females in England. c Posterior distribution of relative excess deaths (%) in males in Greece. d Posterior distribution of relative excess deaths (%) in females in Greece. e Posterior distribution of relative excess deaths (%) in males in Italy. f Posterior distribution of relative excess deaths (%) in females in Italy. g Posterior distribution of relative excess deaths (%) in males in Spain. h Posterior distribution of relative excess deaths (%) in females in Spain. i Posterior distribution of relative excess deaths (%) in males in Switzerland and j posterior distribution of relative excess deaths (%) in females in Switzerland. The black dots represent the medians of the posterior distribution of relative excess deaths. The red line highlights the 0% relative excess deaths, which means no observed difference in the 2020 mortality compared to the counterfactual scenario that the pandemic did not occur.