Table 3. Suitable coffee growing areas globally and in main producing countries (S1: highly suitable, S2: Moderately suitable, S3: Marginally suitable, N: Unsuitable) for current (2000) and future (2050) conditions under three RCPs: 2.6 (low emissions), 4.5 (intermediate emissions), 8.5 (high emissions).
Expected changes in suitable areas are given as a percentage.
| RCP 2.6 | RCP 4.5 | RCP 8.5 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suit Class | 2000 (km2) | 2050 (km2) | Δ (%) | 2050 (km2) | Δ (%) | 2050 (km2) | Δ (%) |
| World total | |||||||
| S1 | 36,240 | 16,540 | ‒54.4 | 16,777 | ‒53.7 | 14,678 | ‒59.5 |
| S2 | 5,709,608 | 3,951,207 | ‒30.8 | 3,679,863 | ‒35.5 | 3,369,550 | ‒41.0 |
| S3 | 14,709,645 | 15,118,407 | 2.8 | 13,995,976 | ‒4.9 | 12,787,405 | ‒13.1 |
| N | 104,044,240 | 105,413,581 | 1.3 | 106,807,118 | 2.7 | 108,328,100 | 4.1 |
| Brazil | |||||||
| S1 | 5,934 | 1,421 | ‒76.1 | 1,268 | ‒78.6 | 161 | ‒97.3 |
| S2 | 1,822,032 | 1,311,548 | ‒28.0 | 1,161,921 | ‒36.2 | 1,040,958 | ‒42.9 |
| S3 | 2,430,089 | 2,536,454 | 4.4 | 2,427,693 | ‒0.1 | 1,939,711 | ‒20.2 |
| N | 4,099,828 | 4,508,459 | 10.0 | 4,767,001 | 16.3 | 5,377,052 | 31.2 |
| Vietnam | |||||||
| S1 | 683 | 358 | ‒47.6 | 196 | ‒71.3 | 99 | ‒85.5 |
| S2 | 141,637 | 106,814 | ‒24.6 | 89859 | ‒36.6 | 75,422 | ‒46.7 |
| S3 | 108,773 | 143,838 | 32.2 | 146498 | 34.7 | 149,801 | 37.7 |
| N | 68,291 | 68,373 | 0.1 | 82829 | 21.3 | 94,060 | 37.7 |
| Indonesia | |||||||
| S1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| S2 | 42,862 | 35,247 | ‒17.8 | 26,828 | ‒37.4 | 20,914 | ‒51.2 |
| S3 | 1,391,935 | 1,191,058 | ‒14.4 | 922,242 | ‒33.7 | 698,400 | ‒49.8 |
| N | 387,893 | 596,385 | 53.7 | 873,620 | 125.2 | 1,103,376 | 184.5 |
| Colombia | |||||||
| S1 | 332 | 123 | ‒63.0 | 108 | ‒67.5 | 83 | ‒75.0 |
| S2 | 75,494 | 55,729 | ‒26.2 | 50,886 | ‒32.6 | 47,650 | ‒36.9 |
| S3 | 574,239 | 375,858 | ‒34.5 | 273,066 | ‒52.4 | 224,152 | ‒61.0 |
| N | 473,101 | 691,455 | 46.2 | 799,106 | 68.9 | 851,282 | 79.9 |