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. 2022 Jan 26;12:1402. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-05056-7

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© The Author(s) 2022

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Clinical incidence of malaria predicted by either halting or extending the age range of the annual SMC campaign. Model predictions for the average number of clinical cases per year per 1000 people if SMC was halted (red bar), continued implementation across the existing target age (0–5 years, blue bar) or extended to 0–10 years old (green bar) or 0–15 years (purple bar). Incidence is averaged over the whole population (all ages) over a three-year period following the change in policy to reflect the regularity of mass ITN campaigns. ITNs are assumed to be either pyrethroid-only ITNs (left bars) or pyrethroid- piperonyl butoxide (PBO) ITNs (right bars).