Table 3:

Area under the receiver operating characteristics curves for the six selected models (1) including both clinical and urine biomarkers and (2) including clinical markers only. Values presented are the internal validation cvAUC (95% CI) based on the repeated 10-fold cross-validation using the 4 training cohorts used in model development and the external validation AUC (95% CI) based on predicted probabilities and observed outcomes in the external OSS validation cohort. 95% confidence intervals for the cvAUC were estimated using the approach described by LeDell et al (2012) and 95% confidence intervals for the external validation AUC were calculated using a bootstrap sampling approach based on 1000 bootstrap samples.

Response	Model	Type	Internal cvAUC (95% CI)	Validation AUC (95% CI)
Strict eGFR	SVML	clinical + biomarker	0.84 (0.77, 0.91)	0.80 (0.62, 0.95)
		clinical	0.76 (0.69, 0.83)	0.73 (0.53, 0.89)
Relaxed eGFR	RF	clinical + biomarker	0.83 (0.75, 0.91)	0.92 (0.80, 1.00)
		clinical	0.67 (0.58, 0.74)	0.83 (0.62, 0.96)
Strict uPCR	LR	clinical + biomarker	0.76 (0.68, 0.82)	0.69 (0.48, 0.87)
		clinical	0.70 (0.63, 0.78)	0.71 (0.49, 0.89)
Relaxed uPCR	RF	clinical + biomarker	0.74 (0.68, 0.83)	0.69 (0.47, 0.87)
		clinical	0.68 (0.62, 0.75)	0.68 (0.46, 0.87)
Strict Combined	LR	clinical + biomarker	0.73 (0.64, 0.81)	0.60 (0.41, 0.79)
		clinical	0.70 (0.62, 0.78)	0.68 (0.46, 0.87)
Relaxed Combined	RF	clinical + biomarker	0.74 (0.67, 0.82)	0.64 (0.44, 0.84)
		clinical	0.69 (0.62, 0.78)	0.63 (0.43, 0.83)