TABLE 3.
Average yearly cost per one million population and mean parasite prevalence reduction for interventions and combinations of interventions applied in the study for scenarios that could result in malaria elimination. 95% confidence intervals are presented in (lower, upper). (See Table S7 and Supporting information 7 for complete estimates of all scenarios.)
| Intervention | Coverage | WHO’s | Estimates from model's outputs | Transmission intensity | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average yearly costs per one million population ($int, million) | Mean parasite prevalence reduction from baseline over 15 years (%) | ||||||
| Scenarios without gene drives | ITNs and ACT | 80% | 0.82 | 0.82 (0.82, 0.82) | 0.36 | Low | |
| ITNs and ACT | 95% | 0.74 | 0.74 (0.74, 0.74) | 0.36 | Low | ||
| 0.74 (0.74, 0.74) | 0.48 | Medium | |||||
| Cost calculation range | Lower bound | Upper bound | |||||
| Scenarios with gene drives | 300 gene drive mosquitoes with X‐shredder efficiencies = 1.0 alone | NA | Not covered in WHO’s study | 0.72 (0.72, 0.72) | 7.17 (7.17, 7.17) | 0.23 | Low |
| 0.80 (0.62, 0.97) | 7.94 (6.20, 9.68) | 0.36 | Medium | ||||
| 0.72 (0.72, 0.72) | 7.17 (7.14, 7.19) | 0.36 | High | ||||
| ITNs plus gene drives with X‐shredder efficiencies = 0.95 and 1.0 | 80 | Not covered in WHO’s study | 1.35 (1.35, 1.35) | 7.81 (1.35, 1.35) | 0.28 | Low | |
| Elimination could not be achieved | Medium | ||||||
| Elimination could not be achieved | High | ||||||
| ITNs plus gene drives with X‐shredder efficiencies = 0.95 and 1.0 | 95 | Not covered in WHO’s study | 1.43 (1.43, 1.43) | 7.89 (7.88, 7.88) | 0.33 | Low | |
| 1.43 (1.43, 1.43) | 7.88 (7.87, 7.89) | 0.42 | Medium | ||||
| Elimination could not be achieved | High | ||||||
| ACT plus gene drives with X‐shredder efficiencies = 0.95 and 1.0 | 95 | Not covered in WHO’s study | 0.93 (0.93, 0.93) | 7.39 (7.38, 7.38) | 0.32 | Low | |
| Elimination could not be achieved | Medium | ||||||
| Elimination could not be achieved | High | ||||||
| ITNs and ACT plus gene drives with X‐shredder efficiencies = 0.95 and 1.0 | 50 | Not covered in WHO’s study | 1.40 | 7.86 | 0.32 | Low | |
| Elimination could not be achieved | Medium | ||||||
| Elimination could not be achieved | High | ||||||
| ITNs and ACT plus gene drives with X‐shredder efficiencies = 0.95 and 1.0 | 80 | Not covered in WHO’s study | Achieved elimination without gene drives | Low | |||
| 1.54 (1.40, 1.40) | 7.99 (7.85, 7.86) | 0.46 | Medium | ||||
| 1.54 (1.54, 1.54) | 7.99 (7.98, 8.00) | 0.47 | High | ||||
| ITNs and ACT plus gene drives with X‐shredder efficiencies = 0.9, 0.95 and 1.0 | 95 | Not covered in WHO’s study | Achieved elimination without gene drives | Low | |||
| Achieved elimination without gene drives | Medium | ||||||
| 1.46 (1.46, 1.46) | 7.91 (7.89, 7.93) | 0.49 | High | ||||
Transmission intensity in study areas: Low: Haut Katanga; Medium: Kwango, Kasai Central, Nord Ubangui; High: Bas Uele, Kinshasa, Equateur.