Table 1.
Main long-term pandemic effects
| Author(s) | Year | Pandemic(s) | Setting | Methodology | Labor and human capital | Investments and physical capital | Knowledge and innovation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aassve et al. | 2021 | Spanish flu | US: 1891–935; 1972–94 | Econometric model | Negative | ||
| Acemoglu and Johnson | 2007 | Various epidemic events | World: 1940–2000 | Econometric model | Negative | Mixed | Negative |
| Adda | 2016 | Various epidemic events | France: 1984–2010 | Econometric model | Negative | ||
| Alfani | 2013 | Bubonic plague | Western Europe: 1600–99 | Historical analysis | Negative | Mixed | Positive |
| Alfani | 2021 | Various plagues and cholera | Western Europe: 600–1900 | Historical analysis | Mixed | Positive | |
| Alfani and Percoco | 2019 | Bubonic plague | Italy: 1629–800 | Historical analysis and econometric model | Negative | Mixed | Negative |
| Almond | 2006 | Spanish flu | US: 1960–80 | Econometric model | Negative | ||
| Augier and Yaly | 2013 | AIDS | N.A. | Theoretical model | Mixed | ||
| Bai et al. | 2021 | Various epidemic events | US, UK, China, and Japan: 2005–20 | Econometric model | Negative | ||
| Bar and Leukhina | 2010 | Bubonic plague | England: 1680–880 | Econometric model | Negative | ||
| Basco et al. | 2021 | Spanish flu | Spain: 1915–30 | Econometric model | Mixed | ||
| Beach et al. | 2021 | Spanish flu | World: 1804–940 | Historical analysis | Negative | ||
| Bell and Gersbach | 2009 | Enduring epidemics | N.A. | Theoretical model | Negative | ||
| Birchenall | 2007 | Various epidemic events | England and Wales: 1640–2000 | Econometric model | Negative | ||
| Bleakley | 2010 | Various epidemic events | World | Theoretical model | Negative | ||
| Bloom and Mahal | 1997 | AIDS | World: 1980–92 | Econometric model | Mixed | Mixed | |
| Bloom and Sachs | 1998 | Various epidemic events | World: 1820–996 | Econometric model | Mixed | ||
| Bloom et al. | 2021 | Various epidemic events | World: 1981–2019 | Theoretical model | Negative | ||
| Borsch | 2005 | Bubonic plague | Egypt and England: 1315–600 | Historical analysis | Negative | ||
| Borsch | 2015 | Bubonic plague | Egypt: 1315–885 | Historical analysis | Negative | ||
| Bresalier | 2012 | Spanish flu | UK: 1918–40 | Historical analysis | Positive | ||
| Cakici and Zaremba | 2021 | SARS, avian flu, swine flu, ebola | World: 1996–2019 | Econometric model | Mixed | ||
| Cavallo et al. | 2013 | Various epidemic events | World: 1970–2008 | Econometric model | Mixed | ||
| Cervellati and Sunde | 2011 | Various epidemic events | World: 1940–2000 | Econometric model | Mixed | ||
| Cervellati and Sunde | 2015 | Various epidemic events | Sweden: 1760–2000 | Econometric model | Negative | Mixed | |
| Chakrabarty and Roy | 2021 | SARS, avian flu, swine flu, ebola | World: 2000–17 | Econometric model | Negative | ||
| Chen et al. | 2021 | Various epidemic events | World: 1985–2018 | Econometric model | Negative | ||
| Clark | 2007 | Bubonic plague | Europe and Far East: 1300–800 | Historical analysis | Positive | ||
| Cohen | 2019 | Smallpox and malaria | World: 1940–2010 | Historical analysis | Mixed | ||
| Confraria and Wang | 2020 | AIDS, malaria, tubercolosis | African continent: 1980–2015 | Econometric model | Mixed | ||
| Cuddington | 1993a | AIDS | Tanzania: 1985–2010 | Econometric model | Mixed | ||
| Cuddington | 1993b | AIDS | Tanzania: 1985–2010 | Econometric model | Mixed | ||
| Cuddington and Hancock | 1994 | AIDS | Malawi: 1985–2010 | Econometric model | Mixed | ||
| Dauda | 2019 | AIDS | West Africa: 1990–2016 | Econometric model | Mixed | ||
| Deaton | 2004 | Various epidemic events | World: 1902–2000 | Historical analysis | Mixed | ||
| Delfino and Simmons | 2005 | Tuberculosis | World: 2000 | Econometric model | Mixed | Mixed | |
| Domar | 1970 | Bubonic plague | Eastern Europe: 1400–682 | Historical analysis | Negative | ||
| Donadelli et al. | 2017 | Various epidemic events | US: 2003–14 | Econometric model | Mixed | ||
| Duncan-Jones | 1996 | Antonine plague | Mediterranean basin: 98–210 | Historical analysis | Negative | ||
| Easterlin | 1995 | Various epidemic events | World:1801–987 | Historical analysis | Mixed | ||
| Easterlin | 1999 | Various epidemic events | Western Europe: 1541–2000 | Historical analysis | Mixed | ||
| Epstein | 2000 | Bubonic plague | Western Europe: 1346–53 | Historical analysis | Positive | ||
| Evans and Miguel | 2007 | AIDS | Kenyan: 1998–2002 | Econometric model | Negative | ||
| Fawaz et al. | 2019 | AIDS | Asia: 1990–2015 | Econometric model | Mixed | ||
| Fiaschi and Fioroni | 2019 | Various epidemic events | UK: 1541–914 | Econometric model | Negative | ||
| Finkelstein | 2004 | Hepatitis B, influenza, polio, measles, pertussis | US: 1983–99 | Econometric model | Mixed | ||
| Fortson | 2011 | AIDS | Sub-Saharan Africa: 1951–91 | Econometric model | Negative | ||
| Gallup and Sachs | 2001 | Malaria | Mediterranean basin and Caribbean: 1965–90, 1980–96 | Econometric model | Negative | Mixed | |
| Gaffeo | 2003 | AIDS | World: 2001 | Theoretical model | Negative | ||
| Garrett | 2008 | Spanish flu | US: 1890–2000 | Historical analysis | Negative | ||
| Gordon | 2016 | Various epidemic events | US: 1870–940 | Econometric model | Mixed | ||
| Gori et al. | 2020 | AIDS | Sub-Saharan Africa: 1950–2050 | Econometric model | Mixed | ||
| Gustafsson-Wright et al. | 2011 | AIDS | Namibia: 2006 | Econometric model | Negative | ||
| Habyarimana et al. | 2010 | AIDS | Botswana: 2001–6 | Econometric model | Mixed | ||
| Halkos and Zisiadou | 2019 | Various epidemic events | World: 1900–2016 | Econometric model | Mixed | ||
| Harper | 2016 | Antonine plague, Cyprian plague, Justinian plague | Egypt: 1–641 | Historical analysis | Mixed | ||
| Herlihy | 1997 | Bubonic plague | Western Europe: 1348–541 | Historical analysis | Negative | Mixed | Positive |
| Hopkins | 1988 | Smallpox | Global South: 1966–86 | Historical analysis | Positive | ||
| Jinjarak et al. | 2021 | H3N2 Flu | World: 1968–9 | Econometric model | Negative | Negative | |
| Karlsson et al. | 2014 | Spanish flu | Sweden: 1910–30 | Econometric model | Negative | Negative | Negative |
| Keerthiratne and Tol | 2017 | Various epidemic events | World: 1979–2011 | Econometric model | Mixed | ||
| Keogh-Brown et al. | 2010 | Influenza pandemics | UK: 1918, 1955–60, 1967–72, 2006 | Econometric model | Negative | ||
| Keohane | 2016 | Ebola | West Africa: 1997–2015 | Historical analysis | Positive | ||
| Kremer | 2000 | HIV, malaria, tubercolosis | Africa: 1970–2000 | Historical analysis | Mixed | ||
| Lagerlöf | 2003 | Various epidemic events | World: 100–2100 | Econometric model | Negative | ||
| Lee and McKibbin | 2004 | SARS | Asia: 2002–18 | Econometric model | Mixed | ||
| Little | 2007 | Justinian plague, bubonic plague | Mediterranean basis: 541–750 | Historical analysis | Negative | ||
| Lorentzen et al. | 2008 | Malaria | World: 1960–2000 | Econometric model | Negative | Negative | |
| Mahal | 2004 | AIDS | World: 1980–98 | Econometric model | Mixed | Mixed | |
| McCannon and Rodriguez | 2019 | AIDS | Uganda: 2016 | Econometric model | Negative | ||
| McDonald and Roberts | 2006 | AIDS | World: 1960–98 | Econometric model | Mixed | ||
| Meyers and Thomasson | 2021 | Polio | US: 1916, 1940 | Econometric model | Negative | ||
| Mokyr | 2010 | Various epidemic events | Western Europe: 1514–870 | Historical analysis | Positive | ||
| Novella | 2018 | AIDS | Zimbabwe: 2001, 2007–8 | Econometric model | Negative | ||
| Odugbesan and Rjoub | 2019 | AIDS | Sub-Saharan African: 1990–2016 | Econometric model | Mixed | Negative | |
| Odugbesan and Rjoub | 2020 | AIDS | Sub-Saharan African: 1993–2016 | Econometric model | Negative | ||
| Oster | 2012 | AIDS | Africa: 1995–2007 | Econometric model | Mixed | ||
| Pamuk | 2007 | Bubonic plague | Western Europe: 1346–600 | Historical analysis | Mixed | Mixed | Mixed |
| Parman | 2015 | Spanish flu | US: 1910–30, 1960–80 | Econometric model | Mixed | ||
| Robinson and Acemoglu | 2012 | Bubonic plague | Europe: 1346–800 | Historical analysis and econometric model | Negative | ||
| Rodríguez-Caballero and Vera-Valdés | 2020 | Various epidemic events | Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, UK, US: 1270–2019 | Econometric model | Negative | ||
| Ru et al. | 2020 | SARS | World: 2003, 2020 | Econometric model | Negative | ||
| Sarris | 2002 | Justinian plague | Mediterranean basis: 542–628 | Historical analysis | Negative | ||
| Stiglitz and Guzman | 2021 | COVID-19 | US | Theoretical model | Negative | Negative | |
| Voigtländer and Voth | 2013 | Bubonic plague | Western Europe: 1346–800 | Econometric model | Mixed | Positive | |
| Wallace and Ràfols | 2018 | Avian influenza | World: 2003–16 | Institutional analysis | Positive | ||
| Wobst and Arndt | 2004 | AIDS | Tanzania: 1990–2000 | Econometric model | Negative | ||
| Young | 2005 | AIDS | South African: 1995–2005 | Econometric model | Mixed |