Table. Differences in Main Outputs Among the Simulated Policy Responses to the COVID-19 Pandemic for a 12-Month Intervention Perioda.
| Strategy | Median (90% SI) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggressive elimination | Moderate elimination | Tight Suppression | Loose suppression | |
| Compared with aggressive elimination | ||||
| HALY loss over lifetime | 0 [Reference] | 21 (−90 to 129) | 1927 (871 to 6249) | 10 661 (4776 to 16 396) |
| Net health expenditure over lifetime, $ million | 0 [Reference] | −0.2 (−1.3 to 0.9) | −19.2 (−57.4 to −7.4) | −103.2 (−172.8 to −40.2) |
| Estimated GDP loss, $ billion | 0 [Reference] | −5.2 (−18.6 to 11.0) | 3.3 (−12.1 to 23.6) | 4.3 (−15.9 to 19.4) |
| Probability of being largest across policies, % | ||||
| HALY loss over lifetime | 0 | 0 | 7 | 93 |
| Net health expenditure over lifetime | 62 | 37 | 0 | 1 |
| Estimated GDP loss | 19 | 4 | 33 | 44 |
| Probability of being smallest across policies, % | ||||
| HALY loss over lifetime | 63 | 36 | 0 | 1 |
| Net health expenditure over lifetime | 0 | 0 | 7 | 93 |
| Estimated GDP loss | 23 | 49 | 14 | 14 |
Abbreviations: GDP, gross domestic product; HALY, health-adjusted life-year; SI, simulation interval.
a
90% SIs of the differences were calculated within each run, ensuring each within-run comparison was subject only to stochastic variability and proportional multistate life table model input parameter uncertainty.