Figure 2. Permutation Tests of Hepatitis C Virus Prescription Fills in Treated States and Synthetic Controls.

This analysis is based on Medicaid State Drug Utilization Data for 2017 through 2020. The vertical dotted line indicates the start of the post–subscription-based payment model (SBPM) implementation period. The blue and orange lines represent unadjusted trends in utilization for Louisiana and Washington, respectively. Gray lines represent the estimated placebo differences in outcomes between individual control states and their respective synthetic controls. The donor pool of control states was limited to those with similar liver and sobriety restrictions in the quarter immediately preceding SBPM implementation. See the eMethods and eTable 3 in the Supplement for a description of the synthetic analysis.