Table 2. COVID-19 Vaccine Allocation Strategies.
| Classification group | PROVID | CRS | No. in the population (%) | Mean No. vaccinated (% vaccinated in 8 mo) | COVID-19 hospitalizations per 1000 members | Percentage of total COVID-19 hospitalizations | Inpatient deaths per 100 000 members | Percentage of deaths |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All adults | NA | NA | 3 203 437 (100) | 2 400 000 (74.9) | 2.7 | 100 | 24.1 | 100 |
| CDC proxy | ||||||||
| Essential (high PROVID) | NA | NA | 566 539 (17.7) | 566 539 (100) | 4.7 | 31.4 | 30.2 | 22.2 |
| Age ≥75 y | 253 409 (7.9) | 253 409 (100) | 7.7 | 22.9 | 138.5 | 45.5 | ||
| Age 65-74 y | 375 612 (11.7) | 375 612 (100.0) | 3.5 | 15.3 | 33.8 | 16.5 | ||
| High CRS | 72 729 (2.3) | 72 729 (100) | 7.0 | 6.0 | 46.7 | 4.4 | ||
| Essential (mid PROVID) | 849 696 (26.5) | 849 696 (100) | 1.1 | 11.1 | 4.0 | 4.4 | ||
| All othersa | 1 085 452 (33.9) | 282 015 (26.0) | 1.0 | 13.3 | 5.1 | 7.1 | ||
| Age-based, y | ||||||||
| ≥75 | NA | NA | 262 005 (8.2) | 262 005 (100) | 8.2 | 25.4 | 149.2 | 50.6 |
| 65-74 | 398 693 (12.4) | 398 693 (100) | 4.1 | 19.3 | 41.6 | 21.5 | ||
| 55-64 | 549 383 (17.1) | 549 383 (100) | 3.2 | 20.8 | 23.3 | 16.6 | ||
| 45-54 | 543 360 (17.0) | 543 360 (100) | 2.5 | 15.8 | 11.0 | 7.8 | ||
| 35-44 | 575 337 (18.0) | 575 337 (100) | 1.5 | 9.9 | 3.1 | 2.3 | ||
| 18-34 | 874 659 (27.3) | 71 222 (8.1) | 0.8 | 8.7 | 1.0 | 1.2 | ||
| Risk-based | High | High | 175 943 (5.5) | 175 943 (100) | 12.1 | 24.9 | 146.6 | 33.4 |
| Medium | High | 171 763 (5.4) | 171 763 (100) | 6.8 | 13.6 | 89.1 | 19.8 | |
| High | Medium | 286 139 (8.9) | 286 139 (100) | 4.1 | 13.8 | 17.1 | 6.3 | |
| Low | High | 618 792 (19.3) | 618 792 (100.0) | 3.4 | 24.8 | 44.6 | 35.8 | |
| High | Low | 499 065 (15.6) | 499 065 (100) | 1.6 | 9.6 | 1.4 | 0.9 | |
| Medium | Medium | 296 371 (9.3) | 296 371 (100) | 1.6 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 2.1 | |
| Low | Medium | 391 202 (12.2) | 351 927 (90.0) | 0.8 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | |
| Medium | Low | 492 840 (15.4) | 0 | 0.6 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | |
| Low | Low | 271 322 (8.5) | 0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Abbreviations: CDC, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; CRS, COVID-19 Risk Score; PROVID, probability of COVID-19 infection.
a
All remaining patients 18 years or older.