Table 1.
Predicted herd immunity with different vaccination pace, vaccine hesitancy, and vaccine effectiveness estimates.
| Herd Immunity Datea | Vaccination Coverageb | Fraction Infectedb | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pace = 1.5 | |||
| Vaccine Hesitancyc | |||
| 10% | 06 Sep 2021 | 53.6% | 15.2% |
| 30% | 06 Sep 2021 | 53.3% | 15.2% |
| 50% | 06 Sep 2021 | 48.4% | 16.3% |
| Vaccine Effectivenessd | |||
| 60% | 27 Sep 2021 | 58.1% | 16.7% |
| 80% | 23 Aug 2021 | 50.6% | 14.6% |
| 100% | 26 Jul 2021 | 44.6% | 13.3% |
| Pace = 2.08 (national average pace between January and early March in 2021) | |||
| Vaccine Hesitancy | |||
| 10% | 26 Jul 2021 | 61.4% | 13.4% |
| 30% | 26 Jul 2021 | 60.9% | 13.9% |
| 50% | 30 Aug 2021 | 50.0% | 14.9% |
| Vaccine Effectiveness | |||
| 60% | 16 Aug 2021 | 67.6% | 14.7% |
| 80% | 12 Jul 2021 | 57.2% | 12.9% |
| 100% | 14 Jun 2021 | 48.9% | 11.8% |
| Pace = 2.5 | |||
| Vaccine Hesitancy | |||
| 10% | 28 Jun 2021 | 63.6% | 12.6% |
| 30% | 28 Jun 2021 | 63.1% | 13.2% |
| 50% | 20 Sep 2021 | 50.0% | 14.3% |
| Vaccine Effectiveness | |||
| 60% | 26 Jul 2021 | 73.5% | 13.8% |
| 80% | 14 Jun 2021 | 58.6% | 12.1% |
| 100% | 24 May 2021 | 51.1% | 11.1% |
aEstimated week when herd immunity is achieved. The date mentioned in each row marks the first day of the week.
bCumulative values when herd immunity is achieved.
cPercentage of the population who are hesitant to get the vaccine.
dPopulation-level effectiveness of the first dose of COVID vaccines.