. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2022 Feb 1.

Published in final edited form as: Lancet Glob Health. 2021 Dec 8;10(2):e207–e215. doi: 10.1016/S2214-109X(21)00462-9

Table 3:

Global and regional estimates of paediatric tuberculosis incidence attributable to each of three risk factors in 2019

	HIV	Malnutrition	BCG non-vaccination	Three risk factors combined
Africa	6600 (2500–12 700)	45 100 (19 300–78 100)	71 100 (49 300–97 300)	113 400 (79 900–153 600)
Americas	0 (0–100)	700 (300–1200)	3500 (2600–4600)	4100 (3100–5300)
Eastern Mediterranean	100 (0–100)	14 800 (6300–25 600)	16 000 (11 400–21 600)	28 400 (18 900–40 200)
Europe	0 (0–0)	600 (300–1000)	2800 (2300–3400)	3300 (2700–4000)
South-East Asia	200 (100–500)	56 500 (24 100–97 200)	26 300 (18 700–35 400)	78 400 (45 400–119 600)
Western Pacific	200 (100–400)	9900 (4200–17 000)	14 500 (10 000–19 700)	23 100 (16 000–31 600)
Total	7200 (2700–13 800)	127 600 (54 400–219 700)	134 200 (94 500–181 300)	250 700 (168 000–352 200)

Data are estimated incidence (equal-tailed 95% credible interval). Estimates represent the reduction in incidence produced by the removal of each risk factor.