TABLE 1—

Association Between Changes in Influenza and Overall Death Rates Between 1916 and 1918, and Vote Share for the Fascist Party in 1924: Italy

	Deaths From Influenza (Δ1916–1918; n = 72)		All Causes of Death (Δ1916–1918; n = 72)		All Causes of Death Excluding Influenza (Δ1916–1918; n = 72)
Covariates	B (95% CI)	R 2	B (95% CI)	R 2	B (95% CI)	R 2
Unadjusted	0.23 (0.07, 0.39)	0.52	0.02 (‒0.21, 0.25)	0.44	0.12 (‒0.32, 0.55)	0.45
Populationa	0.24 (0.07, 0.40)	0.52	0.04 (‒0.19, 0.27)	0.45	0.14 (‒0.30, 0.59)	0.45
Locationb	0.22 (0.09, 0.36)	0.53	0.03 (‒0.20, 0.27)	0.46	0.10 (‒0.30, 0.50)	0.46
Occupational structurec	0.21 (0.08, 0.34)	0.56	0.11 (‒0.15, 0.36)	0.52	0.26 (‒0.16, 0.68)	0.53
WW1 soldier casualtiesd	0.24 (0.08, 0.40)	0.52	0.10 (‒0.30, 0.51)	0.44	0.11 (‒0.34, 0.57)	0.45
Fiscal deficite	0.24 (0.09, 0.40)	0.52	0.02 (‒0.21, 0.25)	0.44	0.12 (‒0.33, 0.57)	0.45
Unemploymentf	0.24 (0.08, 0.41)	0.53	0.03 (‒0.21, 0.26)	0.45	0.12 (‒0.30, 0.54)	0.45
Fully adjusted	0.26 (0.10, 0.42)	0.60	0.37 (‒0.17, 0.91)	0.56	0.23 (‒0.31, 0.78)	0.54

Note. CI = confidence interval; WW1 = World War I. Parameter estimates are standardized regression coefficients to have a mean of zero and a standard deviation of 1, so coefficients across models are directly comparable, representing the vote share for the Fascist Party in the 1924 election associated with an increase of one death per 100 000 population between 1916 and 1918. All models include state-level fixed effects with robust standard errors clustered at that city level.

^a Population size in December 1921.

^b City’s latitude and longitude in decimal degrees.

^c Share of workers in the primary sector, in industry, in liberal occupations, and that are owners in its total population in 1921.

^d WWI military casualties per 1000 population.

^e Difference between total revenue and spending measured in thousand lire in 1924.

^f Unemployment rates in industry and agriculture in 1924.