Table 3.

Comparison of risk–prediction models with and without baseline LVEF for the composite of death or HHF under medical treatment.

	Base model*	Base model*+ LVEF (continuous)	Base model*+ LVEF (dichotomized by 55%)
Discrimination
C–statistic	0.76	0.78	0.78
IDI (95% CI)	Reference	0.019 (0.001–0.051) P = 0.032	0.018 (0.001–0.044) P = 0.030
NRI (95% CI)	Reference	0.219 (0.066–0.343) P = 0.012	0.225 (0.104–0.333) P = 0.006
Calibration
LR test	Reference	P <0.001	P <0.001
BIC	1,366	1,358	1,359

BIC, Bayesian information criteria; CI, confidence interval; HHF, hospitalization for heart failure; IDI, integrated discrimination improvement; LR, likelihood ratio; LVEF, left ventricular ejection fraction; NRI, net reclassification improvement.

^*Base model adjusted for age, body mass index, atrial fibrillation, prior myocardial infarction, prior coronary artery bypass grafting, chronic kidney disease, New York Heart Association class III/IV, hemoglobin, left ventricular end–systolic diameter >50 mm, pulmonary hypertension, and EuroSCORE–II.