Table 2.
Factors associated with variation in cross-country cumulative infections per capita, IFR, and hypothetical levels of trust and prevalence of risk factors
| Variation in infections per capita explained by each factor, % (95% UI) | Variation in IFR explained by each factor, % (95% UI) | Reduction in global infections each country's level of trust had exceeded 75th percentile across countries, % (95% UI) | Reduction in global IFR if each county's mean BMI was less than the 25th percentile across all countries, % (95% UI) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seasonality | 2·1% (1·7–2·7)* | .. | .. | .. |
| Age structure | .. | 46·7% (18·1–67·6)* | .. | .. |
| GDP per capita | 4·2% (1·8–6·6)* | 3·1% (0·3–8·6)* | .. | .. |
| Population density | 1·8% (0·8–3·2) | 1·7% (0·3–5·6) | .. | .. |
| Altitude | 5·4% (4·0–7·9)* | .. | .. | .. |
| Pre-exposure to betacoronavirus | 2·1% (1·1–3·1) | 0·7% (0·1–2·1) | .. | .. |
| Body-mass index | .. | 1·1% (0·2–2·6)* | .. | 11·1% (2·1–20·6)* |
| Smoking prevalence | .. | 0·3% (0·1–3) | .. | .. |
| Air pollution | .. | 0·3% (0·1–2·1) | .. | .. |
| COPD prevalence | .. | 0·2% (0·0–0·7) | .. | .. |
| Cancer prevalence | .. | 1·6% (0·1–4·8) | .. | .. |
| Trust in government† | 7·4% (5·4–9·6)* | .. | 12·9% (5·7–17·8)* | .. |
| Interpersonal trust† | 16·5% (12·3–19·5)* | .. | 40·3% (24·3–51·4)* | .. |
| Unexplained variation | 60·6% (55·6–65·2) | 44·4% (29·2–61·7) | .. | .. |
BMI=body-mass index. COPD=chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. IFR=infection-fatality ratio. UI=uncertainty interval.
*
Estimated parameters that are statistically different from zero.
†
These covariates are assumed to be independent from each other and all other covariates. Further, a few countries had incomplete reporting of these covariates. Corresponding figures reflect those countries where the respective covariate was present.