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. 2022 Feb 1;12:1709. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-05482-7

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© The Author(s) 2022

Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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This figure shows the measured effects of partial closures on the rate of change of new cases per capita after IHST (y-axis). The estimates in grey were generated with neither matching nor refinement, while the red estimates were generated with matching and refinement, both displayed with 95% confidence intervals. The optimal refinement strategy selected is covariate balancing propensity score matching. The period includes nine weeks: three prior to the border closure, the week of the closure, and five following the closure.