Table 2.
Modelled within and between ethnic risk of COVID-19 mortality and hospital admission at specific BMI values.
| BMI value (kg/m2) | White | Black | South Asian | Other ethnic minority groups | White | Black | South Asian | Other ethnic minority groups |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COVID-19 mortality | ||||||||
| Mortality risk within each ethnicity compared to a single reference categorya | Mortality risk for Black, South Asian and other ethnic minority groups, compared to white ethnicitiesb | |||||||
| 20 | 1.26 (1.37, 1.56) | 1.20 (0.98, 1.46) | 1.52 (1.31, 1.77) | 1.42 (1.19, 1.69) | 1 (reference) | 0.95 (0.78, 1.16) | 1.21 (1.04, 1.41) | 1.13 (0.95, 1.34) |
| 22.5 | 1 (reference) | 1.19 (1.01, 1.41) | 1.44 (1.26, 1.64) | 1.17 (1.00, 1.38) | 1 (reference) | 1.19 (1.01, 1.41) | 1.44 (1.26, 1.64) | 1.17 (1.00, 1.38) |
| 25 | 0.88 (0.81, 0.95) | 1.23 (1.08, 1.40) | 1.55 (1.39, 1.74) | 1.06 (0.92, 1.22) | 1 (reference) | 1.40 (1.23, 1.59) | 1.76 (1.58, 1.98) | 1.20 (1.05, 1.38) |
| 30 | 0.95 (0.87, 1.03) | 1.72 (1.52, 1.94) | 2.00 (1.78, 2.25) | 1.39 (1.21, 1.61) | 1 (reference) | 1.81 (1.60, 2.05) | 2.11 (1.88, 2.38) | 1.47 (1.27, 1.70) |
| 35 | 1.24 (1.14, 1.34) | 2.38 (2.08, 2.72) | 3.02 (2.64, 3.45) | 2.29 (1.94, 2.72) | 1 (reference) | 1.92 (1.68, 2.20) | 2.44 (2.14, 2.79) | 1.85 (1.57, 2.20) |
| 40 | 1.73 (1.56, 1.91) | 3.01 (2.32, 3.90) | 5.25 (4.06, 6.79) | 3.89 (2.73, 5.54) | 1 (reference) | 1.74 (1.35, 2.26) | 3.05 (2.36, 3.94) | 2.25 (1.58, 3.21) |
| Hospital admissions for COVID-19 | ||||||||
| Risk of hospitalisation within each ethnicity compared to a single reference categorya | Risk of hospitalisation for Black, South Asian and other ethnic minority groups, compared to white ethnicitiesb | |||||||
| BMI value (kg/m2) | White | Black | South Asian | Other ethnic minority groups | White | Black | South Asian | Other ethnic minority groups |
| 20 | 1.16 (1.11, 1.21) | 1.19 (1.05, 1.35) | 1.36 (1.24, 1.49) | 1.12 (1.00, 1.24) | 1 (reference) | 1.02 (0.90, 1.16) | 1.17 (1.07, 1.28) | 0.96 (0.86, 1.07) |
| 22.5 | 1 (reference) | 1.31 (1.19, 1.43) | 1.43 (1.34, 1.54) | 1.23 (1.13, 1.34) | 1 (reference) | 1.31 (1.19, 1.43) | 1.43 (1.34, 1.54) | 1.23 (1.13, 1.34) |
| 25 | 0.97 (0.93, 1.01) | 1.38 (1.29, 1.48) | 1.64 (1.55, 1.74) | 1.39 (1.30, 1.49) | 1 (reference) | 1.43 (1.33, 1.53) | 1.70 (1.60, 1.80) | 1.44 (1.35, 1.54) |
| 30 | 1.18 (1.13, 1.23) | 1.93 (1.81, 2.04) | 2.50 (2.36, 2.65) | 2.15 (2.02, 2.29) | 1 (reference) | 1.63 (1.54, 1.74) | 2.12 (2.01, 2.25) | 1.83 (1.71, 1.95) |
| 35 | 1.56 (1.50, 1.62) | 2.72 (2.91, 2.54) | 3.56 (3.34, 3.80) | 2.92 (2.73, 3.18) | 1 (reference) | 1.74 (1.63, 1.86) | 2.29 (2.15, 2.44) | 1.89 (1.75, 2.04) |
| 40 | 2.08 (1.98, 2.19) | 3.42 (3.04, 3.85) | 4.66 (4.11, 5.28) | 3.38 (2.85, 4.00) | 1 (reference) | 1.64 (1.46, 1.85) | 2.24 (1.98, 2.54) | 1.62 (1.37, 1.92) |
Mortality data derived from Fig. 1. Hospital admission data derived from Fig. 2. Data as hazard ratio (95% CI).
aReports the risk of an event relative to white ethnicities at a BMI of 22.5 kg/m2. Values therefore represent the modelled risk at specific BMI values in different ethnic groups relative to this single reference point.
bReports the risk of an event relative to white ethnicities at specific BMI values. Therefore at each BMI value the modelled risk is provided for Black, South Asian and other ethnic minority groups relative to white ethnicities.
All data adjusted for region, population density, urban/rural classification, deprivation (area and household), social grade, qualification, household size and tenure, household composition (multigenerational, with children), key worker status and type, occupational exposure to disease, occupational exposure to others.