Abstract
This paper studied the impact of COVID-19 on China’s capital market and major industry sectors via an improved ICSS algorithm, a time series model with the exogenous variable and a non-parametric conditional probability estimation. Through the empirical analysis, it is found that the epidemic has no significant impact on the return of the stock and bond markets, but it has increased the market volatility and the impact on the stock market volatility is gradual and more obvious. There are significant differences in the significance, direction and duration of the epidemic on different sectors. In addition, the impact of COVID-19 has been gradual in some industries and rapid in others. Different industries show different sensitivities in their response to COVID-19. Based on the analysis of the impact, this paper put forward the corresponding suggestions for investment strategies and macro-control decisions.
Keywords: COVID-19, capital market, industry sector index, non-parametric conditional probability estimation
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