Table 1.
The accuracy of the model to distinguish severity group 2a or over from severity group 1 in the validation set.
| A. Clinical data alone | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day | True Severity | Estimated S1 (n) | Estimate S2a, 2b, 3 (n) | Error Rate | Accuracy |
| day 4-7 | S1 (n) | 8 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.93 |
| S2a, 2b, 3 (n) | 1 | 17 | 0.06 | ||
| day 5-8 | S1 (n) | 5 | 5 | 0.50 | 0.82 |
| S2a, 2b, 3 (n) | 1 | 23 | 0.04 | ||
| day 6-9 | S1 (n) | 9 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.92 |
| S2a, 2b, 3 (n) | 1 | 27 | 0.04 | ||
| day 7-10 | S1 (n) | 9 | 3 | 0.25 | 0.89 |
| S2a, 2b, 3 (n) | 2 | 31 | 0.06 | ||
| day 8-11 | S1 (n) | 6 | 6 | 0.50 | 0.76 |
| S2a, 2b, 3 (n) | 5 | 28 | 0.15 | ||
| day 9-12 | S1 (n) | 7 | 4 | 0.36 | 0.88 |
| S2a, 2b, 3 (n) | 3 | 42 | 0.07 | ||
| B. Clinical data + antibody data | |||||
| Day | True Severity | Estimated S1 (n) | Estimate S2a, 2b, 3 (n) | Error rate (%) | Accuracy |
| day 4-7 | S1 (n) | 6 | 3 | 0.33 | 0.74 |
| S2a, 2b, 3 (n) | 4 | 14 | 0.22 | ||
| day 5-8 | S1 (n) | 5 | 5 | 0.50 | 0.85 |
| S2a, 2b, 3 (n) | 0 | 24 | 0.00 | ||
| day 6-9 | S1 (n) | 8 | 3 | 0.27 | 0.92 |
| S2a, 2b, 3 (n) | 0 | 28 | 0.00 | ||
| day 7-10 | S1 (n) | 8 | 4 | 0.33 | 0.89 |
| S2a, 2b, 3 (n) | 1 | 32 | 0.03 | ||
| day 8-11 | S1 (n) | 5 | 7 | 0.58 | 0.82 |
| S2a, 2b, 3 (n) | 1 | 32 | 0.03 | ||
| day 9-12 | S1 (n) | 7 | 4 | 0.36 | 0.91 |
| S2a, 2b, 3 (n) | 1 | 44 | 0.02 | ||