Table 2.
The accuracy of the model to distinguish severity groups 2b and 3 from severity groups 1 and 2a in the validation set.
| A. Clinical data alone | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day | True Severity | Estimated S1, 2a (n) | Estimate S2b, 3 (n) | Error Rate (%) | Accuracy |
| day 4-7 | S1, 2a (n) | 22 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.93 |
| S2b, 3 (n) | 2 | 3 | 0.40 | ||
| day 5-8 | S1, 2a (n) | 25 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.80 |
| S2b, 3 (n) | 5 | 3 | 0.63 | ||
| day 6-9 | S1, 2a (n) | 26 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.92 |
| S2b, 3 (n) | 2 | 10 | 0.17 | ||
| day 7-10 | S1, 2a (n) | 26 | 3 | 0.10 | 0.77 |
| S2b, 3 (n) | 7 | 8 | 0.47 | ||
| day 8-11 | S1, 2a (n) | 22 | 8 | 0.27 | 0.77 |
| S2b, 3 (n) | 4 | 18 | 0.18 | ||
| day 9-12 | S1, 2a (n) | 25 | 4 | 0.14 | 0.84 |
| S2b, 3 (n) | 5 | 22 | 0.23 | ||
| B. Clinical data + antibody data | |||||
| Day | True Severity | Estimated S1 (n) | Estimate S2a, 2b, 3 (n) | Error Rate (%) | Accuracy |
| day 4-7 | S1, 2a (n) | 22 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.96 |
| S2b, 3 (n) | 1 | 4 | 0.20 | ||
| day 5-8 | S1, 2a (n) | 26 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.91 |
| S2b, 3 (n) | 2 | 6 | 0.25 | ||
| day 6-9 | S1, 2a (n) | 25 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.95 |
| S2b, 3 (n) | 0 | 12 | 0.00 | ||
| day 7-10 | S1, 2a (n) | 29 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.89 |
| S2b, 3 (n) | 5 | 10 | 0.33 | ||
| day 8-11 | S1, 2a (n) | 25 | 5 | 0.17 | 0.88 |
| S2b, 3 (n) | 1 | 21 | 0.05 | ||
| day 9-12 | S1, 2a (n) | 26 | 3 | 0.10 | 0.84 |
| S2b, 3 (n) | 6 | 21 | 0.22 | ||