TABLE 4.
Predicted two‐year transition probabilities according to HPV genotype (CIN categorization)
| Current state | HPV category | State after two years | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normal | CIN1 | CIN2 | CIN3/cancer | ||
| Normal | HPV 16 | 0.832 (0.685–0.913) | 0.064 (0.033–0.126) | 0.079 (0.036–0.155) | 0.023 (0.009–0.055) |
| HPV 18 | 0.736 (0.493–0.897) | 0.159 (0.054–0.310) | 0.096 (0.006–0.214) | 0.007 (0.000–0.144) | |
| HPV 52 | 0.933 (0.168–0.998) | 0.045 (0.001–0.475) | 0.020 (0.000–0.312) | 0.001 (0.000–0.037) | |
| HPV 58 | 0.974 (0.050–0.999) | 0.017 (0.000–0.581) | 0.007 (0.000–0.324) | 0.000 (0.000–0.052) | |
| Other hrHPVs | 0.889 (0.808–0.940) | 0.090 (0.049–0.157) | 0.017 (0.008–0.036) | 0.002 (0.000–0.007) | |
| No hrHPVs | 0.910 (0.768–0.966) | 0.068 (0.025–0.172) | 0.019 (0.006–0.050) | 0.001 (0.000–0.005) | |
| CIN1 | HPV 16 | 0.444 (0.325–0.555) | 0.127 (0.085–0.194) | 0.250 (0.168–0.339) | 0.177 (0.093–0.293) |
| HPV 18 | 0.622 (0.385–0.752) | 0.161 (0.075–0.314) | 0.189 (0.007–0.370) | 0.026 (0.000–0.352) | |
| HPV 52 | 0.392 (0.153–0.485) | 0.317 (0.246–0.479) | 0.256 (0.186–0.356) | 0.033 (0.010–0.105) | |
| HPV 58 | 0.410 (0.050–0.508) | 0.330 (0.241–0.569) | 0.238 (0.145–0.365) | 0.020 (0.002–0.175) | |
| Other hrHPVs | 0.734 (0.648–0.791) | 0.171 (0.124–0.232) | 0.071 (0.038–0.111) | 0.023 (0.009–0.055) | |
| No hrHPVs | 0.673 (0.614–0.712) | 0.189 (0.159–0.239) | 0.117 (0.091–0.145) | 0.020 (0.009–0.041) | |
| CIN2 | HPV 16 | 0.299 (0.203–0.399) | 0.137 (0.091–0.200) | 0.285 (0.189–0.389) | 0.278 (0.166–0.435) |
| HPV 18 | 0.285 (0.024–0.484) | 0.143 (0.006–0.267) | 0.461 (0.000–0.730) | 0.109 (0.000–0.965) | |
| HPV 52 | 0.236 (0.103–0.317) | 0.349 (0.265–0.461) | 0.334 (0.229–0.438) | 0.079 (0.026–0.240) | |
| HPV 58 | 0.252 (0.041–0.345) | 0.372 (0.242–0.514) | 0.323 (0.150–0.443) | 0.052 (0.006–0.407) | |
| Other hrHPVs | 0.437 (0.316–0.546) | 0.219 (0.155–0.271) | 0.195 (0.099–0.313) | 0.146 (0.065–0.308) | |
| No hrHPVs | 0.406 (0.334–0.468) | 0.250 (0.213–0.290) | 0.253 (0.189–0.326) | 0.089 (0.044–0.179) | |
Values are the predicted transition probabilities (95% confidence interval) from the current true lesions over two years.
Other hrHPVs included HPV 31, 33, 35, 39, 45, 51, 56, 59, and 68.
No hrHPVs were HPVs other than HPV 16, 18, 52, 58, or other hrHPVs.
Abbreviation: hrHPV, high‐risk human papillomavirus.