Rating of the likelihood of pest freedom	Very frequently pest free (based on the Median).
Percentile of the distribution	5%	25%	Median	75%	95%
Proportion of pest‐free plants	9,556 out of 10,000 plants	9,710 out of 10,000 plants	9,835 out of 10,000 plants	9,928 out of 10,000 plants	9,983 out of 10,000 plants
Percentile of the distribution	5%	25%	Median	75%	95%
Proportion of infested plants	17 out of 10,000 plants	72 out of 10,000 plants	165 out of 10,000 plants	290 out of 10,000 plants	444 out of 10,000 plants
Summary of the information used for the evaluation	Possibility that the pest could become associated with the commodity The pest is known to be present in the Zhenjiang province. Different hosts are present in the surroundings of the nursery. Adult males of the pest can fly, crawlers are small enough to pass through the net, and the infection on the commodity can also occur by means of infected scions taken from mother plants. Measures taken against the pest and their efficacy Insecticide treatments (especially contact pesticides) are expected to reduce the likelihood of infection of the pest and the rate of infestation of plants, although only mobile stages will be reached by the products (systemic insecticides are not used). The official inspections during production and before export are expected to have some effects in detecting the presence of the pest, although only mobile stages will be easy to be detected. If the infestation is low, it will be very difficult to detect visually the presence of the pest on the commodity. Finally, the protecting net is expected to have some effect in reducing the flow of crawlers blowed by the wind. Interception records In the EUROPHYT/TRACES‐NT database, there are no records of notification of Pinus parviflora and P. thunbergii plants neither from China nor from other countries due to the presence of Matsucoccus massonianae, M. matsumurae or Matsucoccus sp. between the years 1995 and May 2021 (EUROPHYT/TRACES‐NT, online). Shortcomings of current measures/procedures Net protection is not 100% effective, because crawlers can go through. Main uncertainties – Presence of the pest in the nursery and in the surroundings. – Effectiveness of insecticide treatments against stages hidden in the crevices under the bark. – Effectiveness of inspections in detecting the stages hidden in the crevices under the bark and infestations when the insect density is very low. – Uncertainty on whether P. parviflora is a host.