Table 3.
Age, sex and baseline CVRD status-adjusted risk estimates and population attributable fractions (PAR) for non-modifiable and modifiable risk factors of MARCE in type 2 diabetes
| Risk factors | Category | OR (95%CI) | Estimated risk | ARE | % of events (Pe) | PAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Non-modifiable | ||||||
| Age | < 45 | 1 | 0.030 | 11.1 | ||
| 45–54 | 1.55 (1.49, 1.61) | 0.045 | 0.345 | 17.5 | 0.060 | |
| 55–64 | 2.47 (2.38, 2.55) | 0.070 | 0.577 | 23.4 | 0.135 | |
| 65–74 | 4.35 (4.20, 4.50) | 0.118 | 0.747 | 24.3 | 0.181 | |
| 75–84 | 7.75 (7.47, 8.03) | 0.192 | 0.845 | 17.8 | 0.150 | |
| 85+ | 9.79 (9.38, 10.21) | 0.231 | 0.871 | 5.9 | 0.052 | |
| Sex | Female | 1 | 0.514 | 45.7 | ||
| Male | 1.20 (1.18, 1.23) | 0.559 | 0.082 | 54.3 | 0.044 | |
| Modifiable | ||||||
| Comorbidities | CVRD free | 1 | 0.045 | 58.5 | ||
| HF only | 4.60 (4.20, 5.04) | 0.177 | 0.748 | 1.1 | 0.008 | |
| CKD only | 2.86 (2.76, 2.96) | 0.118 | 0.621 | 7.4 | 0.046 | |
| MI only | 4.29 (3.79, 4.85) | 0.167 | 0.733 | 0.6 | 0.004 | |
| Stroke only | 2.17 (2.06, 2.28) | 0.092 | 0.515 | 3.6 | 0.019 | |
| PAD only | 3.81 (3.54, 4.10) | 0.151 | 0.704 | 1.2 | 0.009 | |
| Multiple CVRD | 4.69 (4.58, 4.79) | 0.180 | 0.751 | 27.6 | 0.207 | |
| BMI | Normal (20–24) | 1 | 0.124 | 12.7 | ||
| Under weight (< 20) | 0.96 (0.88, 1.04) | 0.120 | -0.039 | 1.6 | -0.001 | |
| Over weight (25–29) | 0.99 (0.96, 1.03) | 0.123 | -0.005 | 31.6 | -0.002 | |
| Obese (30–39) | 1.12 (1.09, 1.16) | 0.137 | 0.096 | 43.3 | 0.042 | |
| Severely obese (40+) | 1.49 (1.42, 1.56) | 0.174 | 0.287 | 10.8 | 0.031 | |
| Smoking | Never | 1 | 0.129 | 19.7 | ||
| Former | 1.03 (1.00, 1.06) | 0.132 | 0.026 | 46.3 | 0.012 | |
| Current | 1.15 (1.12, 1.19) | 0.146 | 0.117 | 34.0 | 0.040 | |
| HbA1c | < 7% | 1 | 0.109 | 50.8 | ||
| 7–10% | 1.45 (1.42, 1.48) | 0.150 | 0.276 | 40.9 | 0.113 | |
| 10% | 1.96 (1.88, 2.04) | 0.192 | 0.436 | 8.3 | 0.036 | |
| Hypertension | SBP < 150 and DBP < 100 | 1 | 0.134 | 83.3 | ||
| SBP > 150 or DBP > 100 | 1.24 (1.21, 1.27) | 0.161 | 0.167 | 16.7 | 0.028 | |
| High cholesterol | HDL ≥1 and LDL ≤3 and triglyceride ≤2.3 | 1 | 0.127 | 38.4 | ||
| HDL ≤1 or LDL ≥3 or triglyceride ≥2.3 | 1.10 (1.08, 1.13) | 0.139 | 0.083 | 61.6 | 0.051 | |
| Physical activity | Inactive | 2.19 (2.07, 2.32) | 0.140 | 0.506 | 43.0 | 0.217 |
| Moderately inactive | 1.01 (0.93, 1.09) | 0.069 | 0.005 | 9.1 | 0.000 | |
| Moderately active | 1.49 (1.41, 1.58) | 0.100 | 0.307 | 36.0 | 0.110 | |
| Active | 1 | 0.069 | 12.0 | |||
| Overall cardiovascular health* | Ideal | 1 | 0.080 | 1.0 | ||
| ≥1 risk factor | 1.84 (1.72, 1.97) | 0.138 | 0.419 | 99.0 | 0.415 |
*Risk factors: BMI ≥30, current smoker, HbA1c ≥7%, hypertension, high cholesterol, inactive. Each multivariable logistic model adjusted for age, sex and baseline cardio-renal status. ARE = (Re − Ru)/Re, where Re is the estimated risk of the outcome in the exposed and Ru is the estimated risk in the unexposed groups. PAR=ARE*proportion of exposed in the population (Pe). Abbreviations: ARE attributable risk among the exposed, BMI body mass index, CVRD cardiovascular and renal diseases, DBP diastolic blood pressure, HbA1c glycated haemoglobin, HF heart failure, HDL high-density lipoprotein, CKD chronic kidney disease, HDL low-density lipoprotein, MI myocardial infarction, SBP systolic blood pressure, PAR population attributable risk, PAD peripheral artery disease