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. 2022 Feb 8;12:2114. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-06159-x

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© The Author(s) 2022

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Predicted spread of hypothetical VOC “Neos,” shown from August 1 2021 to June 31 2022. Results are obtained for baseline parameters and three alternative scenarios. “PZ/AZ,” lower fraction of vaccines being Pfizer (from 95 to 40%), with the reduction made up with AstraZeneca, which offers reduced protection from Delta infections and a longer dosing delay. “Vac rate,” vaccination rate reduced by 20%. “NPI”, less stringent lockdown measured, with mobility increased by 25%. (a) Number of new Neos infections. (b) Total number of Neo infections. (c) Total number of vaccinated individuals infected with Neos. (d) Cumulative dealths from Neos infections.