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. 2022 Feb 8;12:2114. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-06159-x

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© The Author(s) 2022

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Sensitivity of model predictions, measured by total infections and deaths, to increases in model parameter values, in a two-year simulation interacting VOC dynamics. Parameters are varied individually for wild-type (column a), Alpha (column b), and Delta (column c). Relative changes in the number of infections and deaths are then computed for wild-type (yellow bars), Alpha (red bars), and Delta (blue bars). Parameter examined include virus infectivity (β), rate of infection of individuals recovered from a different variant (β_R), ratio of asymptomatic versus symptomatic infections (σ), degree of increased infectivity β (due to mobility) of asymptomatic infected individuals compared to symptomatic ones, mortality rate of infected individuals (μ_I), disease recovery rate (γ), rate of loss of immunity due to infection (η_R), vaccine escape rate (β_V), NPI stringency (λ), dosing interval (ω₂), vaccination rate (ω₁).