Fig. 2.

Uncertainty about the GDP Impact of COVID-19. Notes: The left panel shows the uncertainty about the economic impact of COVID-19 on GDP, for consumers (jagged black solid and dotted red line) and Blue Chip forecasters (blue dashed line), measured by the standard deviation across responses in percentage points (“disagreement”). Panel (b) shows average subjective uncertainty across respondents, computed as the standard deviation of a beta distribution fitted on the probability distribution solicited in the consumer survey at the level of individual responses. (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)