Table 2. Baseline and low population counties forecast regressions 4 and 6 weeks ahead.
| Restaurant, Bar, Gym, Spa, Retail and Movie Theater Estimates | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline Data | Low Population Counties | |||||||
| VARIABLES | Meant+4 | S.E. | Meant+6 | S.E. | Growtht+4 | S.E. | Growtht+6 | S.E. |
| Bars Closed, Rest Closed | -1.141** | 0.499 | -1.265*** | 0.464 | -1.229** | 0.560 | -1.202** | 0.523 |
| Bars Closed, Rest Out | -0.453 | 0.468 | -1.660*** | 0.424 | -0.590 | 0.540 | -2.009*** | 0.480 |
| Bars Out, Rest Out | 0.445 | 0.514 | -0.699 | 0.460 | 0.693 | 0.592 | -0.615 | 0.527 |
| Bars Closed, Rest 25% | -0.498 | 0.525 | -0.243 | 0.531 | -0.931 | 0.602 | -0.714 | 0.607 |
| Bars Out, Rest 25% | -4.294*** | 0.932 | -3.500*** | 0.963 | -6.280*** | 1.241 | -4.304** | 1.691 |
| Bars 25%, Rest 25% | -2.896*** | 0.505 | -3.379*** | 0.500 | -3.233*** | 0.619 | -3.736*** | 0.617 |
| Bars Closed, Rest 50% | -0.850** | 0.342 | -1.115*** | 0.329 | -0.988** | 0.392 | -1.198*** | 0.371 |
| Bars Out, Rest 50% | 1.204* | 0.651 | -0.521 | 0.703 | 1.067 | 0.740 | -0.745 | 0.790 |
| Bars 25%, Rest 50% | -0.620 | 0.501 | 0.222 | 0.502 | -0.717 | 0.554 | 0.142 | 0.550 |
| Bars 50%, Rest 50% | -0.538** | 0.263 | -0.364 | 0.242 | -0.751** | 0.305 | -0.534* | 0.276 |
| Bars Closed, Rest >50% | 1.715*** | 0.470 | -0.389 | 0.357 | 1.809*** | 0.510 | -0.363 | 0.390 |
| Bars 25%, Rest >50% | 4.155*** | 0.768 | 2.362*** | 0.646 | 4.439*** | 0.857 | 2.465*** | 0.718 |
| Bars 50%, Rest >50% | 0.034 | 0.293 | -0.123 | 0.278 | -0.175 | 0.322 | -0.343 | 0.305 |
| Gyms Closed | -0.714* | 0.408 | -1.144*** | 0.389 | -0.737 | 0.462 | -1.091** | 0.440 |
| Gyms 25% | 0.550 | 0.369 | 0.685* | 0.363 | 0.873** | 0.416 | 1.151*** | 0.407 |
| Gyms 50% | 0.244 | 0.281 | -0.266 | 0.272 | 0.451 | 0.312 | -0.083 | 0.299 |
| Spas Closed | 2.656*** | 0.409 | 2.678*** | 0.412 | 2.723*** | 0.458 | 2.755*** | 0.462 |
| Spas 25% | 1.247*** | 0.407 | 0.799** | 0.399 | 0.882* | 0.458 | 0.389 | 0.443 |
| Spas 50% | 1.186*** | 0.261 | 1.601*** | 0.259 | 1.099*** | 0.280 | 1.516*** | 0.278 |
| Retail Closed | -0.461 | 0.534 | -1.226** | 0.534 | -0.841 | 0.598 | -1.880*** | 0.607 |
| Retail 25% | -0.651** | 0.263 | -0.274 | 0.253 | -0.477 | 0.298 | -0.092 | 0.284 |
| Retail 50% | -0.722*** | 0.216 | -0.614*** | 0.200 | -0.638*** | 0.246 | -0.449** | 0.226 |
| Movies Closed | 0.323 | 0.378 | -0.132 | 0.353 | 0.289 | 0.423 | -0.337 | 0.394 |
| Movies 25% | 1.166*** | 0.312 | 0.559* | 0.291 | 1.150*** | 0.341 | 0.436 | 0.315 |
| Movies 50% | 0.883*** | 0.276 | 0.310 | 0.265 | 0.833*** | 0.299 | 0.131 | 0.284 |
| Observations | 66,321 | 66,321 | 58,860 | 58,860 | ||||
| Adjusted R-squared | 0.0844 | 0.0873 | 0.0815 | 0.0843 | ||||
| Control | YES | YES | YES | YES | ||||
The table shows results of estimating Eq (1), where the dependent variable is the j week ahead (from date t) fatality growth. Each explanatory variable is a dummy variable equal to 1 if that policy is in place on date t and 0 otherwise. Capacity limits over 50% (including full openings) are the omitted policies. Lagged fatality growth, current and lagged cumulative fatalities per capita, demographic and weather controls are all included in the regressions, but estimated coefficients are not reported in the table. Baseline Data estimates include all counties. The Low Population sample excludes the five most populous counties in each state. Standard errors are clustered at the county level and are robust to heteroskedasticity. Significance Key
* 10%
** 5%
*** 1%.