Table 4.
Results of multilevel negative binomial models showing prediction of alcohol-related consequences from day-level TAC features in separate models
| Drink Count Unadjusted IRR (95% CI) | Morning Drink Count Adjusted IRR (95% CI) | EMA Drink Count Adjusted IRR (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AUC | 1.83 (1.57, 2.12)*** | 1.42 (1.19, 1.69)*** | 1.54 (1.30, 1.83)*** |
| Morning Report Drinks | -- | 2.13 (1.65, 2.77)*** | -- |
| Episodic EMA Drinks | -- | -- | 1.55 (1.22, 1.98)*** |
| Peak | 1.95 (1.65, 2.31)*** | 1.48 (1.21, 1.81)*** | 1.61 (1.33, 1.95)*** |
| Morning Report Drinks | -- | 2.16 (1.67, 2.80)*** | -- |
| Episodic EMA Drinks | -- | -- | 1.64 (1.29, 2.08)*** |
| Rise Rate | 1.52 (1.28, 1.81)*** | 1.23 (1.02, 1.49)* | 1.27 (1.06, 1.53)** |
| Morning Report Drinks | -- | 2.70 (2.13, 3.43)*** | -- |
| Episodic EMA Drinks | -- | -- | 2.04 (1.62, 2.58)*** |
| Fall Rate | 1.55 (1.31, 1.85)*** | 1.20 (1.00, 1.45)† | 1.24 (1.03, 1.50)* |
| Morning Report Drinks | -- | 2.61 (2.06, 3.31)*** | -- |
| Episodic EMA Drinks | -- | -- | 1.94 (1.54, 2.44)*** |
| Duration | 1.59 (1.24, 2.05)*** | 0.97 (0.74, 1.28) | 1.18 (0.89, 1.56) |
| Morning Report Drinks | -- | 2.88 (2.24, 3.69)*** | -- |
| Episodic EMA Drinks | -- | -- | 2.06 (1.65, 2.59)*** |
Note: All models adjust for person means of TAC features and self-reported drinking (morning and/or EMA drink reports) as well as sex (male = 1, female = 0), bodyweight (in pounds), and social weekend (Thu/Fri/Sat) versus weekday (Sun/Mon/Tue/Wed). Results including coefficients for all independent variables and random effect estimates are included in Supplementary Tables 2a through 2e. All independent variables were z-scored to allow meaningful comparison of IRR effect sizes.
p < .001,
p < .01,
p < .05,
p < .10. IRR = incident rate ratio, interpreted as percent difference using (IRR – 1)*100. IRRs less than 1 indicate a percent decrease; IRRs greater than 1 indicate a percent increase. IRRs with confidence intervals including 1 indicate no significant relationship.