Table 2.
Remaining years expected to be spent healthy and in work (HWLE) at ages 50, 55, 60, 65, 70 and 75 with covariate combinations sex, osteoarthritis (OA) and occupation in England (ELSA data, n = 15,284).
| Model | Age (95% CI) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 55 | 60 | 65 | 70 | 75 | |
| Sex | ||||||
| Male | 11.00 (10.67, 11.34) | 7.06 (6.83, 7.30) | 3.96 (3.80, 4.11) | 1.50 (1.42, 1.58) | 0.45 (0.41, 0.48) | 0.15 (0.14, 0.16) |
| Female | 8.19 (7.90, 8.48) | 5.08 (4.90, 5.27) | 2.50 (2.39, 2.60) | 0.75 (0.70, 0.80) | 0.25 (0.23, 0.27) | 0.06 (0.05, 0.07) |
| Osteoarthritis | ||||||
| Has OA | 5.68 (5.29, 6.07) | 3.48 (3.24, 3.72) | 1.91 (1.77, 2.04) | 0.54 (0.49, 0.58) | 0.21 (0.19, 0.23) | 0.05 (0.05, 0.06) |
| No OA | 10.00 (9.74, 10.26) | 6.60 (6.42, 6.78) | 3.59 (3.47, 3.71) | 1.30 (1.24, 1.37) | 0.43 (0.40, 0.46) | 0.13 (0.12, 0.14) |
| Occupation | ||||||
| Self-employed | 10.98 (10.23, 11.74) | 7.92 (7.36, 8.49) | 4.61 (4.24, 4.99) | 2.14 (1.94, 2.34) | 0.94 (0.84, 1.03) | 0.35 (0.31, 0.39) |
| Non-manual | 10.06 (9.74, 10.38) | 6.51 (6.29, 6.73) | 3.41 (3.27, 3.55) | 1.16 (1.09, 1.22) | 0.30 (0.28, 0.33) | 0.09 (0.08, 0.10) |
| Manual | 8.59 (8.24, 8.93) | 5.15 (4.93, 5.37) | 2.77 (2.64, 2.90) | 0.92 (0.86, 0.98) | 0.30 (0.28, 0.33) | 0.10 (0.09, 0.10) |
| Sex + osteoarthritis | ||||||
| Males | ||||||
| Has OA | 6.56 (5.99, 7.12) | 4.52 (4.18, 4.86) | 2.52 (2.33, 2.72) | 0.69 (0.63, 0.76) | 0.26 (0.23, 0.28) | 0.13 (0.11, 0.14) |
| No OA | 11.41 (11.06, 11.75) | 7.51 (7.25, 7.76) | 4.36 (4.18, 4.53) | 1.67 (1.58, 1.76) | 0.53 (0.49, 0.57) | 0.16 (0.14, 0.17) |
| Females | ||||||
| Has OA | 5.28 (4.90, 5.65) | 2.96 (2.74, 3.18) | 1.58 (1.46, 1.69) | 0.45 (0.41, 0.49) | 0.18 (0.16, 0.20) | 0.02 (0.02, 0.03) |
| No OA | 8.77 (8.45, 9.09) | 5.70 (5.48, 5.92) | 2.83 (2.70, 2.96) | 0.90 (0.84, 0.96) | 0.31 (0.28, 0.34) | 0.09 (0.08, 0.10) |
| Osteoarthritis + occupation | ||||||
| People with OA | ||||||
| Self employed | 5.81 (4.86, 6.76) | 3.98 (3.43, 4.54) | 2.96 (2.63, 3.29) | 1.39 (1.23, 1.55) | 0.53 (0.46, 0.59) | 0.38 (0.33, 0.42) |
| Non-manual | 7.29 (6.80, 7.78) | 4.23 (3.92, 4.54) | 2.30 (2.13, 2.48) | 0.53 (0.48, 0.58) | 0.23 (0.21, 0.25) | 0.07 (0.06, 0.07) |
| Manual | 4.86 (4.46, 5.25) | 2.79 (2.55, 3.02) | 1.47 (1.35, 1.59) | 0.49 (0.44, 0.54) | 0.17 (0.15, 0.18) | 0.03 (0.02, 0.03) |
| People without OA | ||||||
| Self employed | 12.00 (11.23, 12.78) | 8.74 (8.13, 9.34) | 5.10 (4.68, 5.51) | 2.34 (2.11, 2.57) | 1.09 (0.97, 1.21) | 0.35 (0.30, 0.39) |
| Non-manual | 10.48 (10.14, 10.82) | 6.99 (6.74, 7.24) | 3.77 (3.60, 3.93) | 1.39 (1.31, 1.48) | 0.36 (0.32, 0.39) | 0.10 (0.09, 0.12) |
| Manual | 9.33 (8.94, 9.71) | 5.90 (5.64, 6.16) | 3.25 (3.08, 3.41) | 1.08 (1.01, 1.15) | 0.40 (0.37, 0.44) | 0.14 (0.13, 0.15) |
| Sex + osteoarthritis + occupation | ||||||
| Males with OA | ||||||
| Self employed | 7.80 (6.57, 9.04) | 3.59 (2.97, 4.21) | 3.00 (2.66, 3.34) | 1.29 (1.14, 1.43) | 0.42 (0.35, 0.48) | 1.11 (0.98, 1.24) |
| Non-manual | 10.30 (9.62, 10.98) | 5.63 (5.20, 6.05) | 3.04 (2.78, 3.30) | 0.86 (0.76, 0.95) | 0.36 (0.32, 0.40) | 0.14 (0.13, 0.16) |
| Manual | 2.01 (1.57, 2.46) | 3.85 (3.49, 4.22) | 2.18 (1.98, 2.37) | 0.56 (0.49, 0.62) | 0.19 (0.16, 0.21) | 0.06 (0.05, 0.06) |
| Males without OA | ||||||
| Self employed | 13.06 (12.27, 13.86) | 9.11 (8.49, 9.72) | 5.67 (5.22, 6.12) | 2.74 (2.48, 3.00) | 1.28 (1.14, 1.41) | 0.31 (0.26, 0.36) |
| Non-manual | 12.06 (11.63, 12.49) | 7.96 (7.63, 8.30) | 4.51 (4.28, 4.74) | 1.77 (1.65, 1.88) | 0.42 (0.38, 0.46) | 0.13 (0.11, 0.14) |
| Manual | 10.22 (9.75, 10.68) | 6.74 (6.41, 7.07) | 4.05 (3.82, 4.27) | 1.38 (1.28, 1.48) | 0.46 (0.42, 0.51) | 0.18 (0.16, 0.20) |
| Females with OA | ||||||
| Self employed | 2.99 (2.26, 3.71) | 3.82 (3.30, 4.34) | 3.13 (2.75, 3.52) | 1.30 (1.14, 1.45) | 0.55 (0.48, 0.63) | 0.03 (0.01, 0.04) |
| Non-manual | 6.34 (5.86, 6.82) | 3.61 (3.31, 3.90) | 1.96 (1.80, 2.11) | 0.41 (0.36, 0.45) | 0.18 (0.16, 0.19) | 0.04 (0.03, 0.04) |
| Manual | 4.95 (4.54, 5.36) | 2.28 (2.07, 2.49) | 1.13 (1.03, 1.23) | 0.45 (0.41, 0.50) | 0.15 (0.13, 0.16) | 0.01 (0.01, 0.01) |
| Females without OA | ||||||
| Self employed | 10.25 (9.47, 11.02) | 8.07 (7.45, 8.68) | 4.03 (3.65, 4.41) | 1.52 (1.33, 1.71) | 0.61 (0.53, 0.69) | 0.41 (0.35, 0.46) |
| Non-manual | 9.04 (8.65, 9.43) | 6.06 (5.79, 6.34) | 3.05 (2.88, 3.22) | 1.00 (0.92, 1.07) | 0.28 (0.25, 0.31) | 0.07 (0.06, 0.08) |
| Manual | 8.57 (8.15, 8.99) | 5.16 (4.89, 5.43) | 2.54 (2.38, 2.69) | 0.80 (0.73, 0.86) | 0.33 (0.30, 0.36) | 0.10 (0.08, 0.11) |