Fig. 8.

Inflation uncertainty of consumers, firms, and professionals. Notes: Uncertainty for the BIE is measured as the mean of the variance of firm inflation expectations, while it is measured as the dispersion between the forecasts for the SPF. Additionally, the SPF series is re-scaled to the level of the quarterly BIE. The yellow shaded regions begin in March 2020 and signal the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S.

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s Business Inflation Expectations Survey, Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations and Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Survey of Professional Forecasters.