Table 1.
Performance of different models in prediction of progression from aMCI to dementia.
| Feature- set | Model | Follow-up, years | Sensitivity, %, 95% CI | Specificity, %, 95% CI | PPV, %, 95% CI |
NPV, %, 95% CI |
Accuracy, %, 95% CI |
AUC | Progression rate, %a | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Index | 0.5 | 46.6 | 87.6 | 20.2 | 96.0 | 85.0 | 0.67 | 6.3 | 475 |
| 1 | 41.7 | 90.4 | 42.4 | 90.1 | 83.3 | 0.66 | 14.5 | 463 | ||
| 2 | 32.6 | 94.9 | 69.3 | 80.2 | 78.9 | 0.64 | 25.8 | 403 | ||
| 3 | 28.8 | 97.5 | 82.3 | 77.8 | 78.2 | 0.63 | 28.1 | 345 | ||
| 4 | 26.6 | 99.3 | 95.2 | 74.6 | 76.4 | 0.63 | 31.5 | 238 | ||
| LR | 0.5 | 93.3 (77.9–99.1) |
60.0 (55.3–64.5) |
13.5 (11.9–15.4) |
99.2 (97.2–99.8) |
62.1 (57.6–66.4) |
0.77 | 6.3 | 475 | |
| 1 | 88.0 (77.8–94.7) |
65.1 (60.2–69.8) |
29.9 (26.7–33.4) |
96.9 (94.4–98.4) |
68.4 (64.0–72.7) |
0.77 | 14.5 | 463 | ||
| 2 | 80.7 (71.8–87.8) |
73.9 (68.5–78.8) |
51.8 (46.5–57.1) |
91.7 (88.1–94.3) |
75.6 (71.2–79.8) |
0.77 | 25.8 | 403 | ||
| 3 | 76.2 (66.6–84.3) |
79.0 (73.4–83.9) |
58.7 (52.1–65.0) |
89.5 (85.5–92.4) |
78.2 (73.5–82.5) |
0.78 | 28.1 | 345 | ||
| 4 | 77.3 (66.2–86.2) |
85.2 (78.9–90.3) |
70.7 (62.1–78.1) |
89.1 (84.3–92.6) |
82.7 (77.4–87.3) |
0.81 | 31.5 | 238 | ||
| ELD | 0.5 | 83.3 (65.3–94.4) |
72.3 (68.0–76.4) |
16.8 (14.0–20.2) |
98.4 (96.6–99.3) |
73.0 (68.8–77.0) |
0.78 | 6.3 | 475 | |
| 1 | 76.1 (64.1–85.7) |
77.2 (72.8–81.3) |
36.1 (31.1–41.5) |
95.0 (92.5–96.7) |
77.1 (73.0–80.9) |
0.77 | 14.5 | 463 | ||
| 2 | 68.2 (58.4–77.0) |
84.9 (80.4–88.8) |
61.2 (53.9–68.0) |
88.5 (85.3–91.1) |
80.6 (76.4–84.4) |
0.77 | 25.8 | 403 | ||
| 3 | 65.9 (55.6–75.3) |
90.3 (85.9–93.7) |
72.7 (64.0–80.0) |
87.1 (83.7–90.0) |
83.4 (79.1–87.2) |
0.78 | 28.1 | 345 | ||
| 4 | 58.6 (46.7–69.9) |
93.8 (89.0–97.0) |
81.4 (70.0–89.2) |
83.1 (79.0–86.6) |
82.7 (77.3–87.3) |
0.76 | 31.5 | 238 | ||
| 2 | LR |
0.5 | 53.3 (34.3–71.6) |
83.1 (79.3–86.5) |
17.5 (12.5–24.0) |
96.3 (94.7–97.4) |
81.2 (77.4–84.7) |
0.68 | 6.3 | 475 |
| 1 | 35.8 (24.5–48.5) |
83.5 (79.6–87.1) |
26.9 (20.0–35.3) |
88.5 (86.5–90.2) |
76.6 (72.5–80.4) |
0.60 | 14.5 | 463 | ||
| 2 | 38.4 (29.0–48.5) |
90.3 (86.4–93.4) |
57.9 (47.5–67.8) |
80.8 (78.3–83.1) |
76.9 (72.5–81.0) |
0.64 | 25.8 | 403 | ||
| 3 | 38.1 (28.5–48.5) |
93.5 (89.7–96.2) |
69.8 (57.5–79.8) |
79.4 (76.7–81.9) |
77.9 (73.2–82.2) |
0.66 | 28.1 | 345 | ||
| 4 | 34.6 (24.0–46.5) |
94.4 (89.8–97.4) |
74.2 (25.6–37.8) |
75.8 (58.8–85.4) |
75.6 (72.6–78.8) |
0.65 | 31.5 | 238 | ||
| ELD | 0.5 | 86.6 (69.3–96.2) |
64.4 (59.8–68.9) |
14.1 (12.0–16.6) |
98.6 (96.6–99.4) |
65.8 (61.4–70.1) |
0.76 | 6.3 | 475 | |
| 1 | 85.0 (74.2–92.6) |
69.1 (64.4–73.7) |
31.8 (28.1–35.8) |
96.4 (93.9–98.0) |
71.4 (67.1–75.6) |
0.77 | 14.5 | 463 | ||
| 2 | 80.7 (71.9–87.8) |
78.6 (73.5–83.1) |
56.7 (21.6+30.4) |
92.1 (88.7–94.6) |
79.1 (74.9–83.0) |
0.80 | 25.8 | 403 | ||
| 3 | 79.3 (70.0–86.9) |
86.2 (81.4–90.3) |
69.3 (62.0–75.9) |
91.4 (87.8–94.0) |
84.3 (80.1–88.0) |
0.83 | 28.1 | 345 | ||
| 4 | 68.0 (56.2–78.3) |
90.1 (84.5–94.3) |
76.1 (66.1–83.9) |
85.9 (81.4–89.5) |
83.1 (77.8–87.7) |
0.79 | 31.5 | 238 |
Note.
a
Represents progression rate from aMCI to AD at each follow up timeframe based on longitudinal data, which is included in the table for the purpose of comparison with PPV/NPV derived from the models. See texts for details on variables included in each feature-set.
Abbreviations: N= Number of participants at each follow up; LR= logistic regression; ELD= ensemble linear discriminant; CI= confidence interval; PPV= positive predictive value; NPV = negative predictive value.