Table 3.
Diagnosed and estimated undiagnosed HCV reinfection rates per 100 person-years based on observed data and estimated from simulation of complete follow-up for PWID who achieved SVR following treatment initiation during 2015-2018.
| Observed data |
Estimated from simulation |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SVR events | Diagnosed reinfections | PY | Reinfection rate per 100 PY (95% CI)∗ | Undiagnosed reinfections (Median, 95% CI)∗ | Total reinfections (Median, 95% CI)∗ | PY (Median)∗ | Reinfection rate per 100 PY (Median, 95% CI) | |
| Total | 2,401 | 169 | 2,646 | 6.4 (5.5-7.5) | 200 (174-225) | 369 (343-394) | 6,416 | 5.8 (4.8-6.8) |
| Time of treatment initiation∗∗ | ||||||||
| 2015-2016 | 1,185 | 95 | 1,803 | 5.3 (4.3-6.5) | 98 (80-114) | 193 (175-209) | 4,057 | 4.8 (3.7-5.9) |
| 2017-2018 | 1,216 | 74 | 843 | 8.8 (7.0-11.1) | 102 (84-120) | 176 (158-194) | 2,359 | 7.5 (5.7-9.5) |
| Treatment setting | ||||||||
| Hospital | 1,633 | 68 | 1,871 | 3.6 (2.8-4.6) | 82 (66-99) | 150 (134-167) | 4,533 | 3.3 (2.5-4.3) |
| Community | 610 | 66 | 608 | 10.9 (8.5-13.9) | 82 (66-98) | 148 (132-164) | 1,507 | 9.8 (7.3-12.7) |
| Prison | 158 | 35 | 167 | 20.9 (14.8-29.5) | 35 (26-45) | 70 (61-80) | 376 | 18.7 (12.2-26.7) |
| NHS board of treatment | ||||||||
| Greater Glasgow and Clyde | 1,649 | 110 | 1,870 | 5.9 (4.9-7.1) | 99 (82-116) | 209 (192-226) | 3,929 | 5.3 (4.2-6.6) |
| Grampian/Lothian | 485 | 11 | 477 | 2.3 (1.3-4.3) | 25 (16-35) | 36 (27-46) | 1,540 | 2.3 (1.2-4.0) |
| Tayside | 267 | 48 | 299 | 16.1 (12.0-21.6) | 76 (62-90) | 124 (110-138) | 947 | 13.1 (9.5-17.4) |
| Age (years) | ||||||||
| 50+ | 730 | 25 | 724 | 3.5 (2.3-5.1) | 37 (26-48) | 62 (51-73) | 1,946 | 3.2 (2.0-4.7) |
| 35-49 | 1,414 | 110 | 1,612 | 6.8 (5.6-8.3) | 116 (98-136) | 226 (208-246) | 3,734 | 6.1 (4.8-7.5) |
| <35 | 257 | 34 | 310 | 11.0 (7.8-15.5) | 46 (35-58) | 80 (69-92) | 736 | 10.9 (7.3-15.5) |
An additional 678 patients with a confirmatory SVR test identified on the HCV test database but no follow-up test post-SVR were included in simulations.
NHS, National Health Service; PY, person-years; SVR, sustained virological response.
Median and 95% CIs estimated from 1,000 simulations.
Estimates of undiagnosed reinfection were based on observed data on diagnosed reinfection; estimates for those initiating treatment in 2015-16 were based on observed data from those treated during 2014-16, and estimates for those initiating treatment in 2017-18 were based on observed data from those treated during 2014-18.