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. 2022 Feb 21;21:58. doi: 10.1186/s12936-022-04072-2

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© The Author(s) 2022

Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.

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Fig. 3 — Spatial and temporal scales of transmission in Eswatini. Kernel density plots of the spatial (km) and temporal (days) scales of transmission are reported and colour-coded for each inference setting. Dashed lines indicate the corresponding null distribution, generated from all random pairs of cases in the Eswatini surveillance data set. The null distribution was different if we believed the travel history, because classification of cases on the basis of travel history reduced the pairs of cases that could be randomly sampled. The grey shape is the serial interval distribution used in the likelihood