Figure 4. Association between anti-gSG6 IgG seroprevalence and log₂ entomological inoculation rate (EIR).

Figure shows the observed anti-gSG6 (either recombinant or peptide form) IgG seroprevalence (%) and EIR for each study-specific observation, as well as the predicted average anti-gSG6 IgG seroprevalence (predicted probability for the average study and country) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Circles are proportional to the size of the sample for each study-specific estimate, with colours indicating sample size: black (<50), red (50–100), navy (100–150), and green (>150). Association estimated using generalised linear multilevel modelling (mixed effects, logistic) to account for the hierarchical nature of the data, where study-specific anti-gSG6 IgG observations are nested within study and study is nested within country (model output shown in Appendix 6; p<0.001).

Figure 4—figure supplement 1. Estimated change in odds of anti-gSG6 IgG seropositivity (95% confidence interval) for given relative percent increases in entomological inoculation rate (EIR) (infective bites/person/night).

EIR has been log transformed to account for the non-linear relationship between EIR and log odds of gSG6 IgG seropositivity, where a 100% relative increase in EIR corresponds to a twofold increase in EIR. Estimated using generalised linear multilevel modelling (mixed effects, logistic) of the association between anti-gSG6 IgG seropositivity and log EIR, with random effects for country-specific and study-specific heterogeneity in gSG6 IgG seroprevalence and study-specific heterogeneity in effect of EIR (see Appendix 6).