Table 2.
Projected HIV prevalence and HPV vaccination impact on HIV burden among women and men in 2050 and 2070 relative to a baseline scenario with no vaccination.
| Women | Men | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIV prevalence (%) | % reduction in prevalence | Cumulative HIV cases averted | HIV prevalence (%) | % reduction in prevalence | Cumulative HIV cases averted | |
| 2050 | ||||||
| No vaccination | 1.0 (0.7-1.4) | Reference | Reference | 0.5 (0.4-0.7) | Reference | Reference |
| Single age | 1.0 (0.7-1.4) | 2.4 (1.9-3.0) | 7,596 (5,018-12,627) | 0.5 (0.4-0.7) | 2.2 (1.7-2.5) | 3,491 (2,320-5,622) |
| MAC | 1.0 (0.7-1.3) | 3.4 (2.7-4.1) | 11,370 (7,548-18,702) | 0.5 (0.4-0.7) | 3.1 (2.5-3.7) | 5,352 (3,597-8,609) |
| Moderate catch-up | 1.0 (0.7-1.3) | 4.5 (3.6-5.4) | 17,183 (11,570-27,740) | 0.5 (0.4-0.7) | 4.3 (3.5-5.1) | 8,192 (5,630-13,000) |
| High-coverage catch-up | 1.0 (0.7-1.3) | 5.1 (4.1-6.2) | 20,116 (13,533-32,301) | 0.5 (0.4-0.7) | 4.9 (4.0-5.8) | 9,620 (6,636-15,268) |
| HPV-FASTER* | 1.0 (0.7-1.3) | 5.4 (4.4-6.6) | 23,626 (15,811-37,286) | 0.5 (0.4-0.7) | 5.3 (4.3-6.2) | 10,945 (7,651-17,366) |
| 2070 | ||||||
| No vaccination | 0.3 (0.2-0.5) | Reference | Reference | 0.2 (0.1-0.2) | Reference | Reference |
| Single age | 0.3 (0.2-0.4) | 7.6 (6.1-9.1) | 15,609 (9,916-27,192) | 0.2 (0.1-0.2) | 7.4 (5.9-8.9) | 8,253 (5,156-13,666) |
| MAC | 0.3 (0.2-0.4) | 8.9 (7.1-10.6) | 20,570 (13,284-35,553) | 0.2 (0.1-0.2) | 8.6 (6.9-10.3) | 10,944 (6,959-18,009) |
| Moderate catch-up | 0.3 (0.2-0.4) | 10.0 (8.1-12.0) | 27,568 (18,298-46,725) | 0.2 (0.1-0.2) | 9.8 (8.0-11.7) | 14,604 (9,596-23,731) |
| High-coverage catch-up | 0.3 (0.2-0.4) | 10.6 (8.7-12.7) | 31,145 (20,691-52,430) | 0.2 (0.1-0.2) | 10.4 (8.5-12.4) | 16,444 (10,870-26,697) |
| HPV-FASTER* | 0.3 (0.2-0.4) | 11.0 (8.9-13.2) | 34,981 (23,224-57,825) | 0.2 (0.1-0.2) | 10.8 (8.8-12.8) | 17,970 (12,023-29,161) |
Abbreviation: HPV, human papillomavirus; MAC, multi-age cohort
⁎
The HPV-FASTER scenario is similar to the strategy proposed by Bosch et al,18 except that only the vaccination component is modelled in this scenario.