Figure 3.

Simulated impact of different COVID-19 vaccine prioritization strategies in California on numbers of COVID-19 clinical cases, deaths and DALYs for 5 million people vaccinated. Simulated (A) clinical cases, (B) deaths and (C) DALYs in California in the first 6 months of 2021. Five different prioritization strategies were considered: (i) random allocation, (ii) targeting special populations (prisoners, education workers, people experiencing homelessness), (iii) age targeting, (iv) targeting essential workers, (v) targeting individuals with comorbidities. All strategies assumed that all healthcare workers and long-term care facility residents were vaccinated first as per the US CDC recommendation¹¹. Vaccine efficacies against clinical disease and death were assumed to be initially 90% and 95% and to wane gradually over time (see Supplementary Information). Bars show mean estimates across 1000 simulations, error bars show 95% uncertainty intervals from stochastic uncertainty and parameter uncertainty. Results for 2 million and 10 million individuals vaccinated are shown in Figure S3.