Table 1.
Simulated impact of different COVID-19 vaccine prioritization strategies in California on numbers of averted COVID-19 clinical cases, deaths and DALYs for 5 million people vaccinated.
| Strategy | Cases averted, mean (95% UI) | Percentage of cases averted, mean (95% UI) | Deaths averted, mean (95% UI) | Percentage of deaths averted, mean (95% UI) | DALYs averted, mean (95% UI) | Percentage of DALYs averted, mean (95% UI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (i) Random allocation | 78,000 (64,000–92,000) | 13 (10–15) | 4900 (4700–5100) | 35 (33–36) | 54,000 (51,000–56,000) | 25 (24–27) |
| (ii) Special population targeting | 78,000 (64,000–93,000) | 13 (10–15) | 4700 (4500–4900) | 34 (32–35) | 52,000 (49,000–55,000) | 25 (24–26) |
| (iii) Age targeting | 62,000 (53,000–72,000) | 10 (8–12) | 8800 (8600–9000) | 62 (61–63) | 81,000 (78,000–83,000) | 38 (37–39) |
| (iv) Essential worker targeting | 83,000 (67,000–100,000) | 14 (11–16) | 4400 (4300–4600) | 31 (30–32) | 50,000 (48,000–53,000) | 24 (23–25) |
| (v) Comorbidity targeting | 82,000 (69,000–96,000) | 13 (11–16) | 5300 (5100–5500) | 38 (37–39) | 59,000 (56,000–62,000) | 28 (27–29) |
| (vi) Age-and-county targeting | 89,000 (79,000–99,000) | 15 (13–17) | 9000 (8800–9200) | 64 (63–65) | 97,000 (94,000–99,000) | 46 (45–47) |
| (vii) Age-and-special-population targeting | 63,000 (53,000–72,000) | 10 (9–12) | 8800 (8600–9000) | 62 (61–63) | 81,000 (79,000–83,000) | 38 (37–39) |
| (viii) Optimal allocation using all risk factors | 120,000 (110,000–130,000) | 20 (17–22) | 9200 (9000–9400) | 65 (64–66) | 110,000 (110,000–110,000) | 53 (52–54) |
Base case analysis simulated vaccine impact over 6 months for 5 million individuals fully vaccinated (2 doses). All strategies assumed that all healthcare workers and long-term care facility residents (skilled nursing facility and assisted living facility residents) were vaccinated first as per the US CDC recommendation11. Results for 2 million and 10 million individuals vaccinated are given in Tables S7 and S8.