Table 1.

Extrapolations for global minimum estimates of children affected by COVID-19-associated orphanhood and caregiver deaths, March 1, 2020–Oct 31, 2021

	Real-time minimum estimates for March 1, 2020 to April 30, 2021*	Back-calculated minimum estimates for March 1, 2020 to April 30, 2021†	Real-time minimum estimates for May 1, 2021 to Oct 31, 2021†	Total estimates for March 1, 2020 to Oct 31, 2021†	Percentage increase from April 30 to Oct 31, 2021†
Children affected by orphanhood	1 042 000 (806 000–1 083 000)	1 772 300 (1 167 500–1 999 500)	1 594 700 (998 800–1 941 100)	3 367 000 (2 166 400–3 940 500)	90·0% (89·6–90·6)
Children affected by orphanhood or death of primary caregivers	1 134 000 (884 000–1 185 000)	1 880 200 (1 284 200–2 181 900)	1 669 800 (1 093 500–2 099 100)	3 550 000 (2 377 700–4 280 900)	88·8% (88·4–89·5)
Children affected by death of secondary caregivers	428 000 (424 000–431 000)‡	857 000 (854 300–859 900)	793 300 (790 700–793 900)	1 650 300 (1 645 000–1 653 700)	92·6% (92·4–92·6)
Children affected by death of primary (including orphanhood) or secondary caregivers, or both	1 562 000 (1 299 000–1 683 000)	2 737 300 (1 976 100–2 987 000)	2 463 100 (1 643 300–2 744 500)	5 200 300 (3 619 400–5 731 400)	90·0% (89·7–90·4)

Data in parentheses are 95% credible intervals. All extrapolations are based on our set of 21 study countries, which together accounted for 76% of COVID-19 mortality between March 1, 2020, and April 30, 2021: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, England and Wales, France, Germany, India, Iran, Italy, Kenya, Malawi, Mexico, Nigeria, Peru, the Philippines, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Spain, the USA, and Zimbabwe. All comparisons in Discussion section are based on these extrapolations using newly available updated data.

^*Previously reported by Hillis and colleagues.²

^†Based on newly available excess death and COVID-19 death reports.

^‡This number is not reported by Hillis and colleagues.²