Table 2.
Estimated numbers of children orphaned in three age groups and maternal versus paternal orphanhood, for 20 study countries, and global extrapolation, March 1, 2020–Oct 31, 2021
| Ages 0–4 years | Ages 5–9 years | Ages 10–17 years | Total | Maternal orphans | Paternal orphans | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina* | 4300 (4100–4500) | 6500 (6200–6800) | 19 400 (18 800–20 000) | 30 300 (29 400–30 900) | 7000 (6700–7200) | 23 300 (22 600–23 900) |
| Brazil | 32 200 (31 000–33 300) | 41 900 (40 800–43 100) | 95 800 (94 200–97 400) | 169 900 (167 300–172 500) | 38 500 (37 800–39 200) | 131 400 (129 100–133 700) |
| Colombia | 7500 (7100–7800) | 11 700 (11 100–12 200) | 36 100 (34 900–37 100) | 55 300 (53 700–56 600) | 12 500 (12 000–12 900) | 42 800 (41 400–44 000) |
| England and Wales | 1500 (1400–1600) | 2500 (2300–2600) | 6500 (6300–6600) | 10 400 (10 200–10 600) | 2800 (2700–3000) | 7600 (7400–7800) |
| France | 600 (500–700) | 1100 (1000–1200) | 3600 (3500–3700) | 5300 (5100–5500) | 1400 (1300–1500) | 3900 (3700–4100) |
| Germany* | 300 (200–400) | 500 (400–600) | 1500 (1400–1600) | 2400 (2200–2500) | 600 (500–600) | 1800 (1700–1900) |
| India | 266 100 (263 500–268 600) | 405 900 (401 600–409 600) | 1 245 100 (1 237 200–1 252 700) | 1 917 100 (1 905 000–1 928 300) | 421 800 (417 500–426 500) | 1 495 300 (1 484 500–1 505 200) |
| Iran | 12 000 (11 700–12 200) | 16 500 (16 200–16 800) | 42 700 (42 200–43 100) | 71 200 (70 300–72 000) | 15 700 (15 300–16 100) | 55 500 (54 700–56 200) |
| Italy | 400 (300–400) | 700 (700–800) | 2700 (2600–2800) | 3800 (3600–3900) | 800 (700–900) | 3000 (2800–3100) |
| Kenya* | 1800 (1700–1900) | 2200 (2100–2400) | 4300 (4100–4500) | 8400 (8000–8700) | 1400 (1300–1600) | 6900 (6600–7200) |
| Malawi* | 600 (500–700) | 800 (700–900) | 2000 (1800–2200) | 3500 (3200–3700) | 700 (600–800) | 2800 (2500–3000) |
| Mexico | 25 500 (25 100–25 800) | 43 500 (43 100–43 900) | 123 600 (122 600–124 500) | 192 500 (191 000–194 000) | 52 800 (52 000–53 600) | 139 700 (138 500–140 900) |
| Nigeria* | 1000 (900–1200) | 1400 (1300–1500) | 3100 (2900–3300) | 5500 (5300–5900) | 800 (700–900) | 4700 (4500–5000) |
| Peru* | 12 900 (12 200–13 500) | 19 000 (18 000–19 700) | 48 300 (46 500–49 700) | 80 200 (77 700–81 800) | 18 200 (17 700–18 900) | 62 000 (59 800–63 300) |
| Philippines* | 2400 (2300–2500) | 3800 (3700–4000) | 10 100 (9 900–10 300) | 16 300 (16 000–16 700) | 6900 (6600–7200) | 9400 (9200–9700) |
| Poland | 1000 (1000–1100) | 1500 (1400–1600) | 4000 (3900–4100) | 6500 (6400–6700) | 1400 (1300–1500) | 5100 (5000–5300) |
| South Africa | 27 000 (26 200–27 900) | 35 600 (34 600–36 700) | 71 900 (70 100–73 600) | 134 500 (131 600–137 200) | 42 100 (40 900–43 300) | 92 500 (90 200–94 500) |
| Spain | 300 (200–400) | 500 (500–600) | 2000 (1900–2100) | 2800 (2700–2900) | 800 (700–800) | 2100 (1900–2200) |
| USA | 30 200 (30 000–30 400) | 38 100 (37 800–38 300) | 81 100 (80 600–81 500) | 149 300 (148 500–150 200) | 44 200 (43 700–44 700) | 105 200 (104 500–105 800) |
| Zimbabwe* | 2000 (1900–2200) | 2300 (2100–2500) | 3600 (3400–3800) | 8000 (7500–8300) | 2200 (2000–2400) | 5700 (5300–6000) |
| Total for 20 study countries | 429 700 (425 400–433 700) | 636 300 (628 800–642 700) | 1 807 300 (1 794 700–1 819 400) | 2 873 300 (2 852 100–2 891 600) | 672 600 (665 800–679 300) | 2 200 700 (2 183 900–2 215 100) |
| Global extrapolation | 491 300 (485 100–497 900) | 736 800 (726 900–746 500) | 2 146 700 (2 120 900–2 174 200) | 3 374 900 (3 335 800–3 415 100)† | 793 600 (784 000–804 200) | 2 581 300 (2 550 900–2 613 800) |
| Global extrapolation percentage | 14·6% (14·4–14·7) | 21·8% (21·7–22·0) | 63·6% (63·4–63·8) | .. | 23·5% (23·3–23·7) | 76·5% (76·3–76·7) |
Data in parentheses are 95% credible intervals. Totals for 20 study countries and global extrapolation are also given alongside the percentages of each category in the extrapolation.
*
We use only COVID-19-attributed death data for these countries.
†
The global extrapolation total varies slightly to the one presented in table 1 because we did not account for double orphanhood in the age analysis owing to very small numbers (0·1%), and we included more uncertainty in this model (appendix pp 3, 5–6).