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. 2022 Feb 28;40(15):2331–2341. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2022.02.054

Fig. 1.

Fig. 1

(A.) A linear pool predictive density made in June, 2020 of the date when a COVID-19 vaccine will demonstrate an efficacy of 70% or greater. The linear pool assigned a 0.12 probability to a vaccine showing a 70% or greater efficacy by Dec. 10, 2020, the date the Pfizer and BioNTech vaccine was approved. (B.) A linear pool predictive density made in June, 2020 of the efficacy reported from the trial testing the ChAdOx1 vaccine (C.) A linear pool predictive density made in July, 2020, of the efficacy of a vaccine based on four different platforms (D.) A linear pool predictive density made in August, 2020 of the efficacy of a vaccine at approval under a standard regulatory process and emergency use authorization. Under each predictive density is the corresponding 10th, 25th, 50th (median), 75th, and 90th quantile. The true values, if available, are represented as a filled circle. A linear pool of experts and trained forecasters made probabilistic predictions that compared vaccine efficacy between different regulatory mechanisms and between different vaccine delivery methods, gave a time-frame for when an efficacious vaccine will be approved, and made a testable prediction of the efficacy of a specific trial of interest.