Table 12.

Risks and benefits of AVs

Implication of AVs on	Benefits	Risks
Safety	AVs have the potential to increase the traffic safety due to the elimination of the human error that contribute to 90% of the overall accidents	Vehicular failure might replace the human error and contribute more to accidents because of the complexity of the sensors, and the information processing process. Another issue is that the behaviour of AVs is unknown in different environmental conditions such as fog, snow
		Recent studies show that AVs perform much worse than human drivers and that AV safety is still in early stages of development
Ownership	AVs have the potential to reduce the vehicle ownership significantly, even if it used privately. However, using AVs as a shared mode shows promising results with a significant reduction in the required fleet size to serve the same population. Results show that every shared AV can replace up to more than 10 conventional vehicles. This reduction in the fleet size is beneficial for the society and environment because it means lower emissions and better traffic conditions. Additionally, this reduction on the fleet means size much higher vehicle utilization and shorter life span, which in turn means adoption of newer and cleaner technology quickly	–
Waiting time, and trip costs	Shared AVs have the potential to provide much better service when compared to public transit as AVs can reduce the average waiting time and trip costs significantly, which means that shared AVs will be a strong competitor to transit service	Low trip costs of AVs might attract more people to make trips (induced demand) and might attract public transportation users and discourage people from using public transit, which in turn worsen the traffic conditions, increase the required fleet size, VKT, emissions, and energy consumption
Public behaviour	One of the biggest advantages of AVs is that passengers will be able to be engaged in other activities, which in turn means that the trip time will not be considered as economic loss	On the other hand, AVs will motivate people to make longer trips and travel further which in turn increases VKT. The increase in VKT might mean increase in emissions and fuel consumption
	Additionally, AVs have the potential for ridesharing and shifting the personal transportation from personal use to shared use. This reduction in fleet size means better traffic conditions and mitigates congestion	Simulation models show that AVs will increase the VKT significantly depending on their operating strategy, and mode (private or shared mode)
Roads and intersections	AVs have the potential reduce the distance between the vehicles (distance ahead) and reduce the land width due to the high level of communication between vehicles and the elimination of human factors from the driving process, which in turn means a significant increase in capacity of roads	On the other hand, it is not expected that AVs can increase the capacity until high level of market penetration as with conventional driving the human factor will dominate for safety issues or for human feeling of safety as people will be sacred to see the vehicle drive close to the vehicle ahead or the vehicle beside
Land use	AVs have the potential to significantly reduce the number of parking places required in the CBD areas by 80% to 90%, which reduces congestion of vehicles in search for a parking space that consumes 4% of the energy (fuel) consumed Additionally, AVs will not relay on on-street parking but will travel to the nearest off-street parking. Thus, AVs can increase the capacity of roads as these parking lanes can be used to serve the traffic Additionally, this reduction in the parking demand might be also associated with changes in houses design as the end house parking spaces might not be needed anymore and can be used for other purposes. In other words, AVs can indirectly increase the areas of houses Furthermore, AVs might change the design of parking lots. Theoretical speaking, AVs will park itself without the need for the door space which could enable 20% more free spaces. Moreover, AVs can block each other and let each other out when necessary. It was estimated that a parking space can take 2.5 times the conventional vehicles using this method	–
Economy	AVs have a great influence on the economy. It is expected that the impact of AVs will extend beyond the simple crash, and fuel saving into every aspect of the economy	AVs might not solve the congestion problems as the additional demand and increase in VKT might offset the increase in the capacity. However, the drivers’ time will not be considered as economic loss any more as drivers can spend their trips into productive activity
Society and equity	AVs have the potential to increase coverage and accessibility for aged and disabled individuals. Additionally, AVs can increase the accessibility for people with limited transportation accessibility such as rural areas or depressed regions AVs open new opportunities in variety of fields such as decision-making software, vehicle cybersecurity, and data opportunities	AVs have the potential to radically change the conventional market. Many jobs will disappear, while new job professions and new business opportunities will be available
		Additionally, people are likely to be replaced by AVs, which have a potentially significant impact on individuals with lower levels of education and income and consequently implications and concerns for equity. AVs can cause serious loss for truck drivers as the technology would reduce the opportunity for the employment of millions of drivers
Public health	Thus, electric AVs can reduce the noise level significantly AVs could reduce the stress of driving and enhance the public health	AVs might discourage people from walking or cycling, which means reduction in the daily physical activity level
		Thus, AVs have the potential to increase the exhaust and non-exhaust emissions, even with a shift to electric vehicles, because of the increase of the VKT AVs rely on multiple technologies that would increase the exposure to the Electric and magnetic fields, which in turn might worsen the public health
		AVs might cause laxity in the public attitude towards drugs and alcohol